Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh went UNDER for the seventh time in eight games last night, losing 4-3 to the Royals. The Pirates have scored only six runs in five games, including three shutouts. They are 53-37 UNDER this season and Kansas City is 56-36 UNDER. Both teams are averaging only 3.4 runs per game. The Royals have allowed more than three runs once in eight games. Kris Bubic gave up three runs on seven hits in seven innings his last outing against Arizona on Friday. Bubic has a 2.36 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP and has pitched much better than his 7-6 record indicates. The Pirates are 5-0 UNDER in Bailey Falter's past five Wednesday starts and they have gone UNDER 14 of 16 Wednesday games overall. Take the UNDER.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 38-54 on the season, and despite some good young pitchers at the top of the rotation, their offense has not been able to produce much. The Pirates are tied with Kansas City for the fewest runs scored in baseball. The Pirates have been good at home (26-21), but the road has been a train wreck as they are 12-33. The Pirates have started this road trip with four straight losses, and did not score a single run against Seattle as they were swept three straight. Kansas City doesn't swing the bats well, but their pitching is outstanding. Seth Lugo is sizzling as he has allowed just three earned runs in his last five starts. I like Kansas City in this one.

Both have been UNDER teams in 2025 as Pittsburgh is 52-36 UNDER, averaging 3.41 runs, and Kansas City is 55-35 UNDER, while scoring 3.34 runs per game. The Pirates, incredibly, were shut out in the three-game series with Seattle over the weekend, and all three stayed UNDER, with the Mariners winning by a combined score of 8-0. The Pirates have gone UNDER six in a row overall, and they are 5-0 UNDER after allowing two or fewer runs in their previous game. Kansas City has gone UNDER four of five following Sunday's 4-0 win at Arizona. Noah Cameron has allowed seven runs in his past four starts, and all of them stayed UNDER. Andrew Heaney comes off his best outing of the season with six shutout innings on three hits in 6 2/3 innings against St. Louis. Take the UNDER.

Kansas City ends a six-game road trip. Starter Brady Singer (3.42 ERA) has been very good and the Royals are on a 10-3-1 run UNDER the total. They've also gone six consecutive games UNDER as a favorite. Pittsburgh's offense is 21st in runs scored, 26th in on-base percentage, and 25th in slugging. Starter Jared Jones has a 2.77 ERA at home where batters are hitting just .206 off him. Take Kansas City/Pittsburgh UNDER the total.