Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Picks

Mike Burrows came to the Astros from the Pirates this season with a lot of promise. That promise had not manifested itself until now. Burrows pitched a gem in his last start, a 10-0 road win against the Reds six days ago. Burrows gave up three hits with one walk and six strikeouts in seven innings. Seattle is pitching Luis Castillo, who has been its worst pitcher by far this season. Castillo is 0-4 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.62 ratio. The Mariners have lost his last five starts, getting outscored by 21 runs in those games. The Astros not only get Castillo here, but they have home field, where they have played better this season, and are riding momentum from a 4-3 extra-inning victory last night. Outfielder Zach Cole had a career-best three hits for Houston in the victory. Take the Astros. 

After drawing Bryan Woo and George Kirby in the first two games of this series, the Astros step down in pitching class, facing Bryce Miller in his season debut for Seattle. Miller was good in 2024. But he really struggled during an injury-filled 2025 season, dealing with bone spurs. He had a 5.68 ERA. Miller has yet to pitch in the majors this season after suffering a strained left oblique during spring training. Sparked by Yordan Alvarez, the Astros have been an above-average offense ranking 10th in runs, fourth in hitting, fifth in OPS, and seventh in homers. Houston starter Lance McCullers Jr. is on the comeback trail, too. He has a hefty 7.41 ERA, but 37 strikeouts in 34 innings. He struck out nine Orioles in a victory two starts ago. Seattle ranks 21st in runs and 24th in batting average. Take the Astros. 

Seattle has won the past seven meetings following a three-game sweep in April in which the Mariners scored 20 runs. Houston is 5-12 in its past 17 home games against the Mariners. The Astros have lost four of six and two in a row, including the last two games of the Cincinnati series, when they scored a total of one run. George Kirby is 4-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP for Seattle, which has won four of his past five starts. Kirby has not allowed more than two runs in five outings, and Astros hitters have only two extra-base hits against him in 93 at-bats. Seattle hitters are 6-for-14, including four extra-base hits, against Peter Lambert. Houston is only 9-10 at home this season. Take the Mariners.