Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Point Spread Picks

Tampa Bay dropped the first two games of this series, including a shutout Tuesday, and now sends Nick Martinez to the mound for the finale. In 11 starts, he has not allowed more than two runs in a single outing — three straight quality starts heading in, minimal walks, and consistent depth into games. Troy Melton has been equally stingy across his two starts back from an elbow strain, allowing just two runs combined. Both offenses are cold in this spot: Tampa Bay ranks 24th in runs scored over the past two weeks, and Detroit 22nd over the same span. Two sub-2.00 ERA starters working against two offenses trending in the wrong direction. This projects well below the posted total. Take the Tigers/Rays UNDER. 

Tampa Bay posted a series-opening win Monday and sits at 36-20, the best record in the AL East. Tonight's matchup puts Steven Matz on the mound for the Rays, and that is where this run line play lives. Matz was shelled in his last start against Baltimore — six runs, seven hits, three innings — and the Tampa bullpen has been burning extra innings to cover the gap. Detroit sends Jack Flaherty out with a 0-7 record through a dozen starts this season, but staying within the run line is the play here, not who wins. Matz's recent blowup and Flaherty's consistent vulnerability project a messy, higher-scoring game where margins stay tight. Detroit's offense is nothing special, but it doesn't need to be special — it needs to hang around. The Tigers cover the number. Take the Tigers on the runline.

Griffin Jax has been pitching well in his transition to the Tampa Bay rotation — a 1.71 ERA over his first 21 innings as a starter, and the underlying numbers that strip out luck suggest it's mostly legitimate. But 21 innings is a thin slice of evidence, and the market is pricing this matchup as if Jax is an established ace rather than a career reliever who is three weeks into a new role. His ERA as a starter in the majors before this stretch? North of six. Sustained success starting is a very different animal than getting hitters out in short stints out of the bullpen, and the book on him simply isn't written yet. Detroit counters with Ty Madden returning from the injured list, and pitchers are usually sharp in their first start back from rest. The Tigers lineup has genuine pop — Spencer Torkelson is one of the better pure power hitters in the league, Munetaka Murakami ranks sixth in the majors in slugging percentage, and Tropicana Field is one of the friendliest ballparks in baseball for right-handed home run hitters. The market is over-trusting a small sample on a pitcher making a role transition, and giving away a Tigers club at a significant underdog price with real upside in that lineup. Take the Tigers.

Detroit has been getting great pitching and it's a big reason why the Tigers are running away with the AL Central. They have allowed only four runs in four games following Monday's 5-1 win over the Rays, and three went UNDER. Detroit is 25-17-3 UNDER at home this season, including five of the past six at Comerica Park. The Tigers are 5-0 UNDER in Jack Flaherty's past five Tuesday starts and 4-0-1 UNDER in his four home starts against teams with winning records. Tampa Bay has stayed UNDER four Tuesday games in a row and the Rays have five straight road UNDERS when Ryan Pepiot starts versus winning teams. Pepiot has only allowed 11 runs his past 26 innings. The Rays have gone UNDER eight of Pepiot's past nine road starts overall. Take the UNDER.