Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have not played well of late as they are 7-8 in their last 15 games. The value has turned toward them instead of away from them. This afternoon, the Phillies turn to Spencer Turnbull, who is 5-1 in six decisions on the season. The Tigers had an impressive stretch earlier in the season, but this young team is still trying to find itself, and appears to have lost confidence. The Tigers are a woeful 6-12 in their last 18 games, which has slipped them down to five games under .500 for the year. I like the Phillies pitching matchup in this one. Make the play on Philadelphia.

Philadelphia's pitching is No. 1 in the majors in ERA (3.07), including seventh in the pen (3.43 ERA). They beat Detroit yesterday, 8-1, and are fourth in runs scored, second in on-base percentage, and fourth in slugging. Batters are hitting just .191 off starter Ranger Suarez (1.75 ERA) with the team 13-2 in his starts. The Phillies are 46-19 as a favorite of -110 or higher, plus 35-14 in night games. The Tigers have a losing home mark on a 5-12 run overall. Detroit's offense is just 20th in runs scored, 26th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging. They've lost the last two starts made by Tarik Skubal, who has allowed 13 hits and nine runs in 10+ innings. The Tigers are 19-41 at home against teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.45 or better and 6-19 versus teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per contest. Take Philadelphia.  

Philadelphia's pitching is No. 1 in the majors in ERA (3.09), including seventh in the pen (3.43 ERA). Batters are hitting just .215 off starter Aaron Nola (3.54 ERA). The Phillies are 37-23 UNDER the total as a favorite, including 27-13 UNDER as chalk of -150 or higher. They're in first place and are 34-9 as a favorite of -150 or higher, while Nola is 30-9 as chalk. The Tigers have a losing home mark and are on a 5-11 run overall. Detroit is also on a 7-2 run UNDER the total with an offense that is 20th in runs scored, 26th in on-base percentage, and 19th in slugging. Detroit is a good pitcher's park and starter Casey Mize has a 3.26 ERA at home. But they're 6-18 against teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game. Take Philadelphia + UNDER the total as a Max Play.