Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins

Miami has the correct pitcher on the mound to salvage the final game of the series after losing the first two and to counteract Tigers starter Tarik Skubal. Sandy Alcantara is 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP. He has allowed only two earned runs on 10 hits in 24 1/3 innings this season. Detroit hitters have a .175 batting average and just three extra-base hits in 57 at-bats against Alcantara and he has actually fared better than Skubal, who has lost his past two starts. Skubal allowed four runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Twins on Tuesday. The Tigers have lost five of seven while averaging 3.29 runs in that span. There is huge value in the road underdog in this matchup. Take the Marlins.

The Tigers have the distinction of being the first team in the majors to get swept this season. Not only did Detroit lose all four games to the Twins at Minnesota, but it also lost center fielder Parker Meadows to injury following a head-to-head collision with left fielder Riley Greene during Thursday's 3-1 loss to Minnesota. The cold Tigers are 2-9 in their last 11 games and have lost five in a row. Unlike Detroit, the Marlins are off to a strong start. They are tied with the Braves for the top spot in the NL East at 8-5. The pitching matchup is Chris Paddack for the Marlins and Keider Montero for the Tigers. Paddack looked good during spring training, allowing only one earned run and seven hits in 13 innings. Montero went 4.1 innings in his only start this season. He gave up two earned runs in a 5-3 loss to the Cardinals. Montero has ERA's of 4.76 and 4.37 during his first two years in the majors. The Marlins are fifth in runs, third in batting average, and fourth in OPS. Take the Marlins.

Detroit plays its fifth straight on the road after losses of 9-3 and 8-2, part of a 25-13-2 run OVER the total by the Tigers. The offense is seventh in runs scored, 12th in on-base percentage, and 10th in slugging. 41-year-old Charlie Morton (5.59 ERA) comes off losses of 6-4, 10-8, and 7-6, while the relief staff ranks 15th in ERA (4.07). Miami is on an 18-10-1 run OVER the total, winning three in a row, 8-3, 5-0, and 8-2. Batters are hitting .273 off starter Janson Junk (4.48 ERA), who has a 5.32 ERA at home. He comes off losses to Washington (15-7) and Toronto (7-6), while the bullpen is 22nd in ERA (4.38). Take Detroit/Miami OVER the total.