We were in Detroit against Baltimore on Wednesday, and it got away late, an eight-run bullpen collapse in a game Tarik Skubal had built for the Tigers to win. Detroit's own record sits below .500 at 51-58, which isn't the résumé of a heavy favorite on paper, but the reason tonight is simple: Casey Mize is pitching like a different pitcher than his teammates. He's sitting on a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, and he draws an Athletics club that's lost its way to a 45-64 record and gone 21-33 at home. Jeffrey Springs has been at the center of that collapse, with a 6.23 ERA and 1.45 WHIP that have him at 3-10 on the season. My mathematical model projections favor Detroit by well over 20 percentage points, and the power gap backs it up — the Tigers have hit multiple home runs in 22 of their 31 wins this year, exactly the kind of night an Athletics staff allowing this much traffic can't survive. Mize gives Detroit the mound edge its overall record doesn't show. Take the Tigers tonight.
Previous Matchups & Picks
Lines & Odds
Tigers vs. Athletics Betting Picks
Get Tigers vs. Athletics betting picks, expert betting analysis, computer model picks, betting consensus data, matchup breakdowns, key betting angles, and the latest odds insights for today's Tigers vs. Athletics game.
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 76% of the public money was on Detroit Tigers to win on the moneyline. And, 62% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Las Vegas would win by a score of 6.0 to 5.7 with Las Vegas winning on the moneyline and on the runline and the game going OVER the total.
Final Score
MLB Pro Pick Results
Here’s how my Pro Picks are performing.
Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 80% of the public money was on Detroit Tigers to win on the moneyline. And, 63% of the bets were on the game to go UNDER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Detroit would win by a score of 6.3 to 5.6 with Detroit winning on the moneyline, Las Vegas winning on the runline and the game going OVER the total.
Final Score
Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 82% of the public money was on Detroit Tigers to win on the moneyline. And, 65% of the bets were on the game to go UNDER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Detroit would win by a score of 6.9 to 4.8 with Detroit winning on the moneyline and on the runline and the game going OVER the total.
Pro Picks
MLB
Detroit at Las Vegas
9:40 PM Eastern
Final Score
Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 87% of the public money was on Detroit Tigers to win on the moneyline. And, 87% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Detroit would win by a score of 5.0 to 4.0 with Detroit winning on the moneyline, Las Vegas winning on the runline and the game going OVER the total.
Final Score
Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 88% of the public money was on Detroit Tigers to win on the moneyline. And, 82% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Las Vegas would win by a score of 5.2 to 4.8 with Las Vegas winning on the moneyline and on the runline and the game going OVER the total.
Pro Picks
MLB
Las Vegas at Detroit
6:40 PM Eastern
Troy Melton's ERA looks like a rotation ace's, but his walk totals and the underlying contact data haven't matched that number all month, the kind of gap that tends to catch up to a young starter as the league sees him a second and third time. Detroit is 41-50 on the year, the same record the Athletics carry, and a shiny month from Melton hasn't been enough to lift a lineup that still finds itself in low-scoring grinds more often than not. Jeffrey Springs has had a rough season by any measure, but the A's bats have enough pop to make a command-shaky arm work for every out, and if Melton's walk rate shows up the way it has recently, Detroit's bullpen is what actually decides this game. The Athletics don't need to be the better team tonight. They need one inning where Melton loses the zone and a Tigers pen that hasn't been airtight to hold a one or two-run lead. At this price, that's a live number. Take the A's to win.
Final Score
Get free MLB Picks
I pour over the data, injuries, news, and odds every morning. You get the best bets delivered to your inbox.
Get a top-rated pick every day.