Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Picks

Sunday's Game 5 finished Rays 3, Guardians 1, and the score undersold how often Tampa Bay reached base. The Rays had 12 hits to Cleveland's five and left seven runners on through the first four innings. Parker Messick lasted two innings and allowed five hits and two earned runs, and Tim Herrin gave up the third Tampa Bay run in the third inning. Game 1 went the other way, 7-3 Cleveland, after Patrick Bailey's home run tied it against Drew Rasmussen. The Guardians hit 162 home runs this season, and the Rays hit 169, so either lineup can score in one swing. Tampa Bay scored 736 runs in the regular season to Cleveland's 678, and its .402 slugging percentage was higher than Cleveland's .380. A Cleveland loss ends its season, and I expect it to hand the ball to relievers early and often. That is a long run of different arms facing a lineup that put runners on constantly in Game 5. Take the OVER tonight.

Tampa Bay scored seven runs Saturday, five of them in the last three innings, and the ALCS is tied at two with Tampa Bay still the favorite in Cleveland. That price rests on a 98-win regular season against Cleveland’s 85. Parker Messick has the better history with this opponent: three starts against Tampa Bay this year, Game 2 among them, and two earned runs allowed in 18 1/3 innings. The three runs he gave up in Game 2 were all unearned. Drew Rasmussen is excellent too, with a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, so that edge is small. The bullpens are where I see a real gap. Tampa Bay’s relievers have allowed 8 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings this series, a 5.27 ERA. Cleveland’s have allowed 7 in 21 innings, Saturday’s late runs included, and Cleveland’s bullpen ranked sixth in the majors in ERA this season to Tampa Bay’s 14th. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski last pitched Thursday, while Ian Seymour and Kevin Kelly have each appeared in three of Tampa Bay’s four games. I’m taking Cleveland on the moneyline tonight.

Friday’s rainout pushed ALCS Game 4 to tonight, with Cleveland up 2-1 in the series. I had the UNDER in Thursday’s Game 3, and it cashed in a 3-2 Cleveland win. I’m 1-2 in the series, after the UNDER in Game 1 and my Cleveland moneyline in Game 2 both lost. Tampa Bay won 98 games in the regular season to Cleveland’s 85, and its offense scored 4.5 runs per game, 12th in the majors, against Cleveland’s 4.2, 24th. Since August 4, after both clubs added hitters by trade, Tampa Bay has scored 4.8 runs per game, sixth in the majors, and Cleveland 4.7, seventh. Nick Martinez finished with a 3.10 ERA for Tampa Bay and threw 13 scoreless innings against Cleveland in two starts this season. His last two starts ended after two and two-thirds innings and three and two-thirds. Cleveland starts Shawn Armstrong, who made 41 relief appearances and no starts this season. Tampa Bay’s relievers have allowed six earned runs in 10 innings in this series, and Cleveland’s have allowed one in 12. Cleveland’s bullpen ranked sixth in the majors at 3.54, against 3.99 and 14th for Tampa Bay, and I’m taking Cleveland on the moneyline tonight.

I had the UNDER in Thursday afternoon’s Game 3, and it cashed in a 3-2 Cleveland win. Game 4 sent Nick Martinez to the mound for Tampa Bay, and his last two starts ended after two and two-thirds innings against the Phillies and three and two-thirds against the Yankees, with seven hits allowed in the first and five in the second. He finished the regular season with a 3.10 ERA and allowed 22 home runs in 180 innings. Tampa Bay’s bullpen finished the regular season 14th in the majors with a 3.99 ERA. Cleveland won Monday’s Game 1 7-3 and outhit Tampa Bay 14-7, scoring five of its runs against that bullpen in the eighth and ninth innings. Tampa Bay won Tuesday’s Game 2 3-1 and finished the regular season 12th in the majors in runs per game at 4.54. Cleveland relievers Daniel Espino, Erik Sabrowski, Hunter Gaddis, and Cade Smith each pitched in Game 1 and again in Thursday’s Game 3, which would make this game a third appearance in five days for any of them, and I’m taking the OVER tonight.

Monday’s Game 1 finished 7-3 for Cleveland and cost me the UNDER, with five of those seven runs coming in the eighth and ninth innings. Tuesday’s Game 2 went to Tampa Bay 3-1, with Freddy Peralta throwing six scoreless innings and Cleveland’s relievers covering the last three innings without allowing a run. Gavin Williams starts Game 3 for Cleveland after striking out 23 in 10 2/3 innings across his two Division Series starts, allowing two earned runs. He finished the regular season with 248 strikeouts in 184 1/3 innings. Griffin Jax has allowed one earned run in his last four regular-season starts, 18 innings in all, and struck out 116 in 112 1/3 innings this season. Cleveland ranked 24th in runs and 26th in OPS this season. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff finished seventh in ERA, and Cleveland’s finished eighth, with the Guardians’ bullpen sixth in the league at 3.54. I'm backing the UNDER.