Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis is on a 9-7-1 run UNDER the total with an offense that is 18th in slugging and 22nd in steals. The defense is second in the majors in fielding percentage. Matthew Liberatore (3.96 ERA) has allowed two runs in each of his last two starts (13 innings) with one walk and nine strikeouts. He faces a Cleveland offense that is 26th in runs scored, 26th in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging. Logan Allen has allowed three, two, and two earned runs in his last three starts (17 innings). Cleveland is on a 28-13-2 run UNDER the total. Take St. Louis/Cleveland UNDER the total. 

Cleveland looks to snap a two-game skid with Slade Cecconi starting today, and the Guardians have gone UNDER in his past four starts. Cecconi has allowed only five runs in 22 innings in those outings, and all four went UNDER, including a 3-0 win over the Athletics when he threw seven shutout innings on Sunday. The Guardians are on a 9-2 UNDER run, and they have stayed UNDER five of six against National League teams. St. Louis has gone UNDER three in a row, including being shut out twice by the Cubs. The Cardinals have lost Mike Mikolas' past three starts, and they are under. 500 on the road this season. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Cleveland's past five games after they scored two or fewer runs in their previous game. Take the Guardians and the UNDER.

The St. Louis Cardinals are 44-38 on the season and just 4.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the top spot in the NL Central. The Cardinals have to be concerned about their offense right now, as they come into this contest having been shut out twice in a row. The Guardians have trended UNDER over the past two weeks as they are 10-2 to the UNDER in their last 12 games. The Guardians' 10 games that fell UNDER the total saw eight of them reach six runs or fewer. I think this total is too high, considering the Cardinal offense has dived into their last two games and Cleveland has played a ton of low-scoring games. Make the play UNDER the total.

First-place Cleveland has a winning road record anchored by a pitching staff that is fourth in ERA (3.65) and No. 1 in the pen (2.61 ERA). They're on a 9-4 run. Starter Gavin Williams has a 3.86 ERA on the road where he's holding the home teams to a .190 batting average. He faces a St. Louis offense that is 25th in runs scored, 15th in on-base percentage, 21st in slugging, and 21st in steals. Andre Pallante walks a few too many batters (46 in 109+ innings) and has a 4.18 ERA at home. The Cardinals are 4-7 in his last 11 starts. Play Cleveland. 

The Cleveland Guardians have pitched their way to just a half of a game behind the NY Yankees for the top spot in the AL. The Guardians pitching staff has allowed more than four games in a contest just once time in their last 13 games, and in that game they gave up just five. The offense has been scoring just enough to win, and the Guardians are now 15-2-3 to the UNDER in their last 20 games. The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing low in similar fashion as the Cards are 12-3 in their last 15 games. Between the two teams that makes the under 27-5-3! I will make the play on the UNDER in this one.