Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Picks

Cleveland has winning records both home and away, on a 10-2 run. The offense is 13th in runs scored. Parker Messick (2.45 ERA) is holding batters to a .208 average, with 64 Ks in 58+ innings. He sports a 2.38 ERA on the road, and Cleveland is 8-2 in his 10 starts. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has a losing home record. The offense is 22nd in runs and 27th in on-base percentage, plus 15th in slugging and steals. Batters are hitting .295 off Andrew Painter (5.77 ERA), with the Phillies losing six of his last seven starts. The relief staff ranks 16th in ERA (4.00). Play Cleveland. 

The Guardians are 31-22 with a plus-24 run differential. The Phillies are 25-26 with a minus-25 run differential. That is a 49-run differential in favor of Cleveland. Yet the Guardians are huge underdogs to Philadelphia here. Not buying it. The oddsmaker is putting too much into the starting pitching matchup of Slade Cecconi versus Zack Wheeler. Cecconi is pitching much better this month than he did in April, going 3-0 with a 3.68 ERA in four May starts. Wheeler has been very good since returning from injury with a 1.99 ERA. But his strikeout rate per nine innings is his lowest in six seasons. Cleveland has the lower bullpen ERA at 3.80 compared to the Phillies' 4.04. The Guardians are not known for their offense. Yet they entered this series leading the American League in runs per game during this month, averaging more than five per game. The Phillies rank a disappointing 25th in batting average and OPS. Take the Guardians.

Philadelphia has lost two straight, but it is still 16-7 since Don Mattingly took over as manager and back in the wild-card race. The Phillies have won 14 of their past 20 against American League teams. They have averaged 5.5 runs in their past six games as their hitting has also come around since Mattingly took the helm. The Phillies will look to end Cleveland's six-game win streak, which was aided by playing four games against the weak-hitting Tigers, who scored eight runs in the entire series. Christopher Sanchez is 5-2 with a 1.82 ERA, and the Phillies have won his past four starts. Sanchez has not allowed a run in three outings, including a complete-game 6-0 victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday. He has also gotten great run support, as the combined score of his past four starts is 24-3. Take the Phillies.