Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Picks

Parker Messick takes the mound for Cleveland fresh off a start that deserved a better outcome: six and two-thirds innings, one run allowed against San Francisco, and still a loss. That has been the pattern for this rotation lately, and the offense has started making up for it. I had Cleveland on the moneyline out in Colorado three days ago, and it delivered easily, a 9-1 win that has the Guardians riding a four-game streak into tonight's series opener in Anaheim. George Klassen threw a gem in his last outing for the Angels, seven shutout innings against Houston, but that came in a five-start sample that carries a bloated walk rate overall, and the Angels as a team are a well-below-.500 club. Cleveland's team ERA sits roughly half a run better than the Angels', and a road favorite coming off a win to open a series is exactly the kind of spot that has worked for this club recently. Cleveland is the right side on the moneyline tonight.

The Angels have never faced Cleveland's Parker Messick. They are likely in for an unenjoyable experience. Messick has been one of the best pitchers in the American League. He is 4-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Messick is also in the top 12 in the American League in strikeouts with 51 in 47 innings. The Angels have struck out 419 times, the most in the majors. The Guardians have dominated the Angels at Progressive Field since 2015, going 29-4. They have won the first two games of this series and are going for the sweep today. Angels starter Reid Detmers is 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA. Detmers had control problems in his last start, permitting six walks in 3.2 innings against the Blue Jays in Toronto. Cleveland holds a huge bullpen edge. Guardians relievers have a 3.18 ERA this month, while the Angels' bullpen ERA is the third highest at 5.34 on the season. Cade Smith leads the American League in saves with 12 for Cleveland, while the Angels have yet to find a reliable closer. Take the Guardians. 

It can be difficult to back the Angels on the road. Not this time, where they are underdogs despite having the superior starting pitcher. The pitching matchup is Angels rookie RHP Walbert Urena versus Cleveland's Slade Cecconi. Urena has a 3.22 ERA and 22 strikeouts across 22.1 innings with a fastball that reaches 100 mph. Urena just picked up his first career win, holding the White Sox to one earned run on two hits and five strikeouts in six innings this past Wednesday. Cecconi has not only been Cleveland's worst pitcher, but one of the worst in the American League with a 6.15 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 5.53 FIP through eight starts. Cecconi has allowed a scary eight homers in only 41 innings. He will have to deal with power hitters Mike Trout, Jorge Soler, and Jo Adell, who have two homers in four plate appearances against him. Take the Angels.