Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Picks

I had Toronto yesterday, and Cincinnati won 5-1 behind six scoreless innings from Rhett Lowder. That loss says more about the Blue Jays' bats than about the Reds, and it's the angle today. Toronto ranks last in the majors in runs per game and has scored 30 runs over its last ten games. Brandon Williamson starts for Cincinnati off his best outing of the season, six scoreless innings on three hits at Atlanta. He has walked too many hitters this year, but against a lineup this cold that's a manageable flaw. Max Scherzer's 6.14 ERA is the number working against this pick. What makes it survivable is the lineup he's facing: the Reds rank 27th in runs per game, and Scherzer held Detroit to one run over five innings two starts ago. Behind him, Toronto's bullpen carries a 3.58 ERA and threw six scoreless innings in Friday's comeback win. Both teams are eliminated and playing out the string. The UNDER is the play this afternoon.

Toronto spotted Cincinnati with a 5-2 lead through three innings last night, then scored four in the seventh to win 6-5 while its bullpen threw six scoreless innings. That relief corps matters again this afternoon. Trey Yesavage makes his second start since returning from the injured list with knee inflammation, and he was held to two innings on Monday, so expect a short outing. He carries a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, and the Blue Jays bullpen behind him ranks seventh in baseball with a 3.60 ERA. Cincinnati's pen sits 25th at 4.71, and three of its relievers have pitched twice in the last three days. Rhett Lowder will decide this game. His season ERA is 6.01 with a 1.55 WHIP, and the last month has been worse: 21 earned runs across his last four starts, three of which ended before he finished the fifth. The Reds allow 5.12 runs per game, and their staff ERA ranks 28th. Toronto's offense is no prize at 27th in OPS, and the Blue Jays are 3-7 over their last ten. They don't need to be good against this pitching. They need to be competent for five innings, and Lowder has made that easy all month. Toronto is the right side this afternoon, and I don't expect Lowder to leave them needing another late rally.

The Toronto Blue Jays are in a good spot. They were not supposed to be leading the AL East at this point, but their starting rotation and hitting have exceeded expectations. The Reds seem to be feeling the pressure of the playoff chase. Cincinnati has fallen to five games behind for the final NL wild card, and they have played poorly over their last 12 games, where they are a woeful 3-9. The pitching just has not been there as the Reds staff has allowed 68 runs over the 12 games, or 5.7 runs a game. The Blue Jays continue to win, and I like them tonight. Make the play on Toronto.

The Blue Jays lead the AL East by 2.5 games over Boston and New York, but the gap has narrowed over the past two weeks as Toronto (8-8) plays .500 ball while the Red Sox (11-6) and Yankees (12-4) dominate. The problem for the Jays is that the bullpen can't stop a nosebleed. They blew another ninth-inning lead in yesterday's 5-4 loss to the Reds, marking their 23rd blown save of the season (sixth-most in the majors), and the bullpen ERA has gone from 3.62 in the first half of the season to 5.36 since (third-worst in baseball). Cincinnati is four games back in the NL wild-card hunt, scoring 12 runs in its past two games in back-to-back wins against the Cardinals and Jays. The Reds have their top starter on the hill today in Nick Lodolo, and this left-hander has posted a stellar 1.04 WHIP in 134.1 innings this year, striking out 130 batters. He's held hitters to a .217 average at home, and he's 3-1 in his past four decisions. As favorites up to -150, the Reds are 21-12 all-time with Lodolo on the mound. Take Cincinnati to grab the win.