Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Betting Picks

Chase Burns has been the most dominant young starter in the NL this season — 8-1 with a 2.01 ERA — and the market has built this game entirely around what he does. The piece being overlooked is what's happening on the Cincinnati side of the ball. The Reds have gone 6-17 without Elly De La Cruz, who remains on minor league rehab and is out again this afternoon, and that run-suppression on their own side changes what the runline actually costs. Elmer Rodriguez gets the ball in his fourth MLB start, and the surface numbers — a 4.15 ERA, too many walks, no outing past four innings yet — undersell what he's capable of. He posted a 1.27 ERA in Triple-A before the promotion and owns a sweeping curveball opponents have produced zero hits against. Rodriguez isn't going to go six innings; he doesn't have to. The Yankees bullpen will absorb innings against a Reds lineup running well below capacity, and New York's lineup has enough firepower to score against anybody, including Burns, when the moment calls for it. The value on this runline is significant for a team that figures to be a clear favorite on the moneyline. New York wins on the runline this afternoon.

The Yankees have been the most complete team in the American League all season, sitting at 45-28 with a run differential that ranks among the best in baseball. Rhett Lowder returned from missing the entire 2025 campaign and showed flashes of his 2024 debut form early — but that run has given way to a harder reality. Through ten starts this year, the 24-year-old right-hander owns a 4.60 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and has walked 25 batters while striking out just 37. Command is the problem, and Cam Schlittler is not the pitcher you want starting a command-shaky arm against. The 25-year-old right-hander is 7-3 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, third-best in the American League, and has delivered quality starts in seven of his last eight outings — holding opponents to two earned runs or fewer in each of those seven. He carries a 96-strikeout pace and has walked just a handful. When a pitcher who can't locate his pitches faces a lineup this dangerous behind one of the most dominant arms in the league, the math does the work. New York wins on the runline tonight. Take the Yankees on the runline.

The New York Yankees have struggled to find the win column lately, except when Max Fried is on the mound. Fried has made a total of 16 starts, and he has only given up more than three runs once. He is 9-2 on the season, and certainly has been a game changer for the Yankees. The Reds have taken the first two games of this series and remain in competition for the NL playoffs. The Reds are oddly 3-10 on Wednesdays, which seems trivial, but Wednesday is often a travel day. Regardless of the day, CInci is 3-7 in the final game of a series with an off-day up next, and the Yankees are 27-15 as a favorite of -150 or more. I like them behind Fried in this one. Make the play on the NY Yankees. 

New York has a +105 run differential, the best in baseball. The offense is fourth in runs scored and second in on-base percentage. Carlos Rodon (3.10 ERA) has a 114-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 95+ innings while holding batters to a .178 average. Cincinnati goes with 22-year-old Chase Burns, making his major league debut against the Bronx Bombers. The offense is 15th in on-base percentage, while the bullpen is 17th in ERA (4.03) and the defense is 17th in fielding percentage. Play New York.