Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Picks

We had the Reds two days ago against this same Milwaukee club, and it didn't go our way, the bullpen buckling in a 7-2 loss that dropped Cincinnati to its fourth straight loss. Milwaukee has taken the first three games of this series and looks for a sweep this afternoon, but the matchup finally tilts toward the Reds. Chase Burns takes the mound at 9-1 with a 2.36 ERA, easily the best arm either side has sent out all week. This is exactly the type of spot I like: a moderate road underdog, fresh off a loss, catching a club playing this well. At +178, the Reds only need to win a little better than a third of the time for this to pay. Burns gives Cincinnati a puncher's chance. Take the Reds today. 

Milwaukee owns the best record in the National League Central and a lineup putting up better than five runs a night, so the market making them a clear home favorite is no shock. Look at who's on the mound, though. The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Sproat, who carries a 5.43 ERA and has walked 32 in under 70 innings, the kind of arm that can turn any night into a grind. With an erratic Sproat on the mound and the bullpens likely in the mix early, this projects far closer than the number suggests. The Reds also land in a live spot as a road underdog against a club that's been outscoring opponents by more than a run a game. The Reds don’t need to be the better team on paper, just live enough against a pitcher handing them this many openings, and at +150, they only have to win this two times out of five to pay. A Sproat start hands you that kind of opening. Back the Reds tonight. 

Milwaukee just dropped two straight at home to the Cubs, including an 8-2 drubbing, and now turns to Robert Gasser, a lefty still rebuilding his command in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Six starts in, his 4.50 ERA reads better than the work behind it. The underlying numbers, stripping out luck, sit well above that mark, suggesting he's more hittable than the line suggests. That's the soft spot. Cincinnati arrives off a loss at Pittsburgh and sits under .500, so no one's mistaking the Reds for a contender. That's the point, because this is a price play. My mathematical model projections lean Cincinnati by roughly nine percentage points on the moneyline, and there's a long-running pattern that rewards short road underdogs who are scuffling and coming off a loss against a team playing well north of .600. Cincinnati fits every piece of it tonight. At plus money against a back-end starter, the market is overrating; the Reds need to win only a little better than four times in ten to show a profit. Take the Reds on the road tonight.

These two played into a scoreless 10th on Monday, with the Brewers eventually winning 2-1. Milwaukee won again yesterday, 2-0. Rhett Lowder starts for the home side today, and he'll need to be sharp. Lowder is 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA on the season, a number inflated by a shoulder absence mid-June and a rough return to the rotation — but his most recent home outing, a five-plus-inning, one-run effort against Arizona, showed the form he's capable of when healthy. Shane Drohan is on the other side, and while his 3.59 ERA looks reasonable enough, he's allowed three or more runs in two of his last three starts, including four earned on eight hits against Philadelphia. My mathematical model projections lean meaningfully toward Cincinnati — the gap between implied win probabilities at this price and the number the market has assigned points toward value on the Reds. At home, with a pitcher who has the ceiling for a quality start, Cincinnati's price is worth taking. Back the Reds tonight.