Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Picks

Cincinnati is 69-78 and just hit a wall: a 14-1 blowout that closed out a series in Los Angeles, then a 20-0 shutout last night in the opener here at Milwaukee that pushed the Reds' bullpen so deep that a position player had to finish it on the mound. That's four straight losses, and there's no spinning it. But a 20-run outburst is the outlier, not Milwaukee's identity, and laying that kind of number back-to-back against the same opponent is exactly the spot where a market chases yesterday's box score. Brady Singer gets the ball for Cincinnati carrying a 5.03 ERA, and he doesn't need to beat this Milwaukee lineup tonight, just keep it from turning into another laugher. Milwaukee's bullpen barely worked last night and will be fresh, but running up another lopsided score in the same series, against a team that just got embarrassed and knows it, is a tall order even for a 92-win club. I'm taking Cincinnati, and the insurance run on the runline tonight.

Milwaukee has taken care of business against the Reds this series, and dropping Saturday's game after winning the opener sets up exactly the spot I want in the rubber match this afternoon. Kyle Harrison's last time out got away from him in a hurry, an uncharacteristic clunker against the Cubs, but that sits against a 2.47 ERA and an 8-1 record built over a season where four of his last five turns have been sharp, that one outing aside. Brady Singer is the pitcher who actually worries me, and he's on the other side. He's lost three of his last five starts, his ERA has climbed to 4.72 on the year, and he's working with a Cincinnati offense that's scoring barely over four runs a game against a Milwaukee lineup pushing north of five. The Brewers have outscored their opponents by more than 170 runs this season, the kind of gap that separates the league's best roster from a club stuck well under .500. I had Milwaukee here last night at two units and Cincinnati snuck away with the middle game, but that result doesn't change who's better positioned for game three. Milwaukee is the right side on the moneyline this afternoon, and I don't expect Cincinnati's staff to keep this one close.

I was on the road with Milwaukee earlier this week, backing the Brewers on the run line against the best offense in the sport, and they covered without much sweat. That's been the story of this club all season: 88-54, the best record in the National League, with a pitching staff that ranks second in the majors in ERA and an offense that ranks third in runs per game. Cincinnati got a taste of both last night, falling 10-7 as Milwaukee's lineup did what it has done all year to lesser arms. Dustin May takes the ball tonight carrying a 4.69 ERA that hides how uneven his last few turns have been, but he does not need to be sharp against a Reds staff sitting at a 4.68 ERA, 26th in baseball, and an Andrew Abbott who just got rocked for seven runs in three innings his last time out. Cincinnati is 67-74 and still hasn't found a win in this series, and nothing about Abbott's last outing suggests tonight changes that. Milwaukee is the right side on the moneyline tonight.