Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies

Look for the Reds to get revenge after an embarrassing 13-2 home loss to the Rockies on Wednesday. Cincinnati is 19-11. Colorado is 14-17 with a 7-11 road record. Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott, an All-Star last season, is off to a slow start with a 0-2 record and 6.59 ERA. The Rockies are the perfect team for Abbott to turn around his season. The Rockies are 9-45 against lefties going back to last season, including 1-3 this year. The Rockies have struck out at an NL-worst 28.3% clip against left-handed pitchers. Cincinnati also has the third-lowest bullpen ERA in the National League. Colorado is pitching Michael Lorenzen, who is 2-2 with a 4.97 ERA. Lorenzen has a minus 0.35 WAR. Going by that metric, Lorenzen has been pitching at a replacement-level or worse. He will have to deal with Elly De La Cruz, who is tied for the home run lead in the National League with 10, and Sal Stewart, who leads the majors in RBIs with 29. Take the Reds. 

Count the Reds as among the teams that dominate Colorado. Cincinnati is 12-2 in its last 14 games against Colorado following Tuesday's 7-2 victory. Elly De La Cruz stayed on fire, hitting his 10th homer of the season in the win. De La Cruz is tied for fourth in homers in the majors, and teammate Sal Stewart is leading baseball with 29 RBIs. Cincinnati is off to a 19-10 start. Colorado is 13-17. This includes a 6-11 road record. Soft-tossing Tomoyuki Sugano is slated to take the mound for Colorado against Brandon Williamson, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. That is somewhat alarming, but not enough to keep from backing the Reds, who are superior to the Rockies in just about all phases. Cincinnati relief pitchers have the lowest ERA in the majors at 2.83. Rockies relievers have a 3.77 ERA. Take the Reds. 

Last place Colorado is 6-10 on the road and plays its fifth straight away from home. It's not clear what to expect from Kyle Freeland, who comes off the 15-day injured list after left shoulder inflammation. The offense is 23rd in runs scored and 20th in on-base percentage, while the defense is 23rd in fielding percentage. First-place Cincinnati is eighth in the majors in steals, while the defense is 10th in fielding percentage, and the bullpen is second with a 2.91 ERA. Chase Burns (2.57 ERA) is holding batters to a .190 average. The Reds are on a 10-4 run and play their fourth straight at home. Play Cincinnati. 

Colorado is on a 14-8 run UNDER the total after splitting the first two of this series, 3-2 and 4-3. The offense is 27th in runs scored, last in on-base percentage, 22nd in steals, and 23rd in slugging. Cincinnati's offense is 15th in on-base percentage and 17th in slugging. The Reds are on a 14-7-2 run UNDER the total. Play Colorado/Cincinnati UNDER the total.