Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Betting Picks

Chicago has been the surprise story of the American League all summer, and they arrive in Houston at 72-64, sitting on a 3.5-game lead in the AL Central. The Astros, by contrast, are clinging to first in a weak AL West at 69-68, in real danger of becoming the first sub-.500 division winner in recent memory. That gap in form is the read my numbers keep landing on tonight. Anthony Kay has been the stabilizer of that White Sox turnaround, running a 3.46 ERA since May 1 after a rocky start, and he takes a 4.18 mark into a lineup that isn't overwhelming anyone. Peter Lambert has quietly been Houston's most reliable arm, but he just got rocked for nine runs in 3.2 innings against the Angels before grinding through a shaky no-decision versus the Yankees. That's not an aberration in a vacuum, either. Houston's rotation carries a 5.12 ERA that ranks third-worst in baseball, and no Astros starter has finished six innings since August 10, which keeps stacking innings onto a Houston pen that has to work overtime every night. Chicago is playing meaningful games with a real edge in starting pitching, and we're happy to be on that side of the ledger. Take the White Sox on the moneyline tonight.

We were on Houston's moneyline Tuesday, and Tatsuya Imai delivered eight strikeouts in a win over Miami that's since turned into a four-game winning streak for the Astros, including both games of this series in Chicago. That's the actual shape of this matchup, and it's the strongest case against today's pick. But the pitcher on the mound for Houston has nothing to do with that streak. Ronel Blanco is making just his second big-league start in over fourteen months, working back from Tommy John surgery, and his return outing against Miami came with three walks and two home runs allowed over less than five innings, the markers of a pitcher still finding his rhythm off a long layoff. I like Chicago here: the White Sox are the better team by record this year, sitting atop the AL Central, and both the sharp money and the reverse line movement in this game are already pointing the same way. Erick Fedde doesn't need to be sharp against a lineup that's catching Houston's rotation still working back to full strength. Back the White Sox today.