Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Betting Picks

Chicago is red hot, winners of eight of its last ten and fresh off cashing us as -156 favorites last night in an 8-6 shootout, but the number's gotten too big again tonight and the matchup doesn't support it. David Peterson brings a 5.35 ERA to the mound, a number that doesn't inspire much confidence at a big Chicago price, and Washington counters with Jackson Kent making his major league debut. A first big-league start usually means a short leash and a game plan built around the bullpen rather than letting a rookie work deep, and that changes the shape of this one. Peterson's own struggles cap how much cushion Chicago's offense can bank, and Washington's lineup, which has put together 171 home runs this season, has enough thump to make a rookie-armed Cubs bullpen pay if given the chance. This looks like a tighter, bullpen-decided game than a blowout, the kind where the underdog's price at plus money is live and where the total doesn't need to run up. Take Washington on the moneyline and take the UNDER.

Chicago rolled into this series fresh off sweeping the Dodgers, and Shota Imanaga was a big reason why, working five innings of one-run ball in the finale to push his ERA down to 3.60 and his record to 8-9. That start was part of a trend, not an outlier — his numbers have been sliding the right direction for weeks. Washington, meanwhile, is the definition of streaky: the Nationals dropped seven straight before salvaging four of five against a lifeless Reds club, and the bullpen behind tonight's starter has been a genuine liability, surrendering 15 combined runs in the ninth inning alone over their last four-game set while one reliever's ERA ballooned from 4.01 to 6.25 in that same stretch. Jake Irvin draws the assignment for Washington at 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA, and outside of one strong outing against Chicago back in March, he's been hit hard by the Cubs, working to an 8.54 ERA in his other starts against them. I like Imanaga's command against a shaky Washington pen enough to make this a lopsided matchup on the mound and in the bullpen behind it. We're on the Cubs on the moneyline tonight.

Chicago will start Shota Imanaga, who got off to a great start last season allowing one run in 11 innings in March and 11 earned runs in 28 innings in April. He was even better the first two months of 2024 when he allowed 12 earned runs in 58 innings. Imanaga looked great his last two appearances in spring training striking out 13 in 9 2/3 innings. He is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two career starts against Washington. The Nationals managed only four hits on Saturday and they will send Jake Irvin to the mound. This is a high posted total due to a slight wind blowing out to left field, but look for the game to stay UNDER the total.