Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Picks

Toronto's 54-61 record doesn't lie about the kind of season the Blue Jays have had, but Dylan Cease has been the exception, with his 2.41 ERA and 174 strikeouts that stand out on a rotation without much else working. Chicago counters with David Peterson, a 5.52 ERA and control problems that have let free baserunners pile up all season. The Cubs enter red-hot, having just swept the Dodgers and won four of their last five to sit atop the NL wild-card race, and this lineup won't see many arms sharper than Cease's the rest of the way. We backed Toronto's plus price three nights ago in Houston, and it delivered, a 3-1 win built on the same pitching mismatch this game presents. Cease should keep Chicago's lineup honest deep into the afternoon, and that's enough to make the Blue Jays worth backing on the road. Toronto is the right side today. 

Colin Rea has been an unpleasant surprise on the mound for Chicago over the past month. The right-hander is 5-5 on the season with a 5.35 ERA, and the recent trend is worse: Rea has allowed multiple runs in each of his last five outings, producing a 5.40 ERA over that stretch with just one quality start to show for it. The command that made him a serviceable rotation piece has eroded, and he carries those struggles into this afternoon against a Toronto lineup that features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement — who is hitting .309 with seven home runs this season — and a patient group of hitters that knows how to work counts and apply sustained pressure. Patrick Corbin brings his own challenges to the mound, but the Jays have enough offensive quality to stay in this game regardless of what he delivers. The +1.5 cushion is the play: it accounts for the realistic scenario where Chicago scores first, and it accounts for the fact that Rea's recent form makes locking down a multi-run victory for the Cubs a difficult proposition. Wrigley favors offense on both sides, but the pitching narrative here favors Toronto staying within touching distance. Take the Blue Jays on the runline this afternoon as my MLB Game of the Week.

Chicago is on a 9-1-1 run UNDER the total. The defense is seventh in fielding percentage, while the bullpen is 13th in ERA (3.83). Starter Matthew Boyd (2.45 ERA) has 121 strikeouts in 135+ innings while holding batters to a .230 average. Toronto has its own ace going in Max Scherzer, who has 49 Ks in 47 innings. He's allowed three runs or less in his last three starts (19 innings). These teams have split the first two of this series, 5-1 and 4-1, both sailing UNDER, and this shapes up as another pitcher's duel. Take Chicago/Toronto UNDER the total.