Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Picks

We were on Chicago's runline in the series opener Friday, and it cashed when the Cubs snuck out a 3-2 win in extra innings. Pittsburgh has been on the wrong end since, an 11-0 loss last night that put this series on the brink of a sweep. Own that up front: Chicago is the better team by record this year, and that gap is real. But the matchup on the mound today breaks the other way. Braxton Ashcraft has been through a rough four-start stretch, yet he's still an All-Star with swing-and-miss stuff and a full season of starts behind him. Jameson Taillon is working with neither. He just returned from six weeks on the injured list with a hamstring strain, and his first start back against Detroit produced four earned runs in barely four innings, exactly what a pitcher still building up arm strength looks like. My mathematical model favors Pittsburgh here, and sharp money is already leaning the same way. A home favorite in game three after dropping the first two of a series is a spot that's paid off before, and I like Pittsburgh to be the latest example. Pittsburgh is the play in the finale.

Pittsburgh is down to bare knuckles on the mound right now. Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller are both sitting out this series, leaving Jared Jones to take the ball tonight, and the Pirates bullpen, supposed to cover any shortfall, has been part of the story behind eight losses in Pittsburgh's last nine games. Matthew Boyd starts for Chicago, sitting at 6-1 while the Cubs hold down the top National League Wild Card spot. My mathematical model likes Chicago by double digits across every read I ran on this one, and today the cash is leaning the same way: the ticket count is close to even, but the bulk of the money is landing on Chicago's number. Pittsburgh's relief corps has been shaky enough all year that the front office is counting down to the trade deadline to fix it, and that's exactly the kind of unit a one-run margin puts under pressure late. I don't need Chicago to win outright here, just to keep this margin honest. Chicago wins on the runline tonight.