Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Picks

I had Chicago on the moneyline in this same series last night, and it slipped away in extra innings, a 4-3 loss that dropped the Cubs to 0-2 here at Milwaukee. Tonight's matchup looks tougher on paper: Logan Henderson brings a 2.48 ERA and a 9-3 record to the mound for a Brewers club sitting on the best record in the National League Central, against Kevin Gausman's 4.38 ERA and a middling 9-11 mark. But this Cubs lineup leads all of baseball in runs scored this season, and a group that's been hitting at that pace all year doesn't go quiet just because the opposing arm has a shiny ERA. The market's split tells a similar story: a noticeably bigger share of the money than the ticket count is landing on Chicago, the kind of gap that usually means informed cash sees value the public isn't pricing in. Milwaukee has had to grind through extra innings just to close out this series, showing the Cubs' bats are making this a fight even while losing. Chicago's offense is live enough to turn one of these late innings into the moneyline cashing. I'm on the Cubs tonight.

I had Chicago on the moneyline in this same series yesterday, and it got away late: the Cubs carried a 2-1 lead into the eighth before Milwaukee scored three that inning to flip it, and a ninth-inning run wasn't enough in a 4-3 final. Tonight looks tougher. Jacob Misiorowski takes the mound for Milwaukee with a 1.97 ERA that ranks among the best in the majors, against David Peterson, who's scuffled to a 5.39 mark for Chicago. The Cubs sit at 81-64, trailing an 89-56 Milwaukee club with the better roster top to bottom, and that gap is real. But Chicago owns the most productive offense in baseball by total runs scored, and the last time this lineup faced Misiorowski, six days ago, it jumped him for a 5-3 lead through two innings on the way to five earned runs in four frames, his worst start of the year. Milwaukee's own bats did even more damage that night in a 9-5 win, but that head-to-head still says the Cubs' attack can solve an arm that's given up next to nothing to everyone else this year. Take the Cubs on the moneyline tonight. 

I had Chicago on the moneyline against Miami two nights ago, and it cashed, 6-5, part of a stretch that's kept this offense rolling into September. The Cubs are 81-63, trailing Milwaukee's pace in the standings, but this afternoon comes down to the arms, not the win column. Matthew Boyd takes the mound at 8-3 with a 4.05 ERA, and even in a shakier turn against this same Brewers lineup last week, allowing three runs, he still worked into the sixth. Milwaukee counters with Robert Gasser, sitting at 4-5 with a 4.57 ERA, about half a run higher than Boyd's number. Chicago's offense outproduces Milwaukee's in OPS and slugging, and against the weaker arm on the mound, that gap is the whole ballgame. Late in the schedule against a Milwaukee offense that hasn't been scoring much lately, the numbers look like where Chicago sits, too. The bigger bets back it up: Chicago is pulling a clear majority of the money on a ticket count barely over a third, the kind of split that tells you where the sharper side of today's market is landing. Boyd over Gasser is the mismatch this price hasn't caught up to. Chicago is the right side on the moneyline this afternoon, and I don't expect Boyd's arm to keep this one particularly close.