Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins

Miami is 4-6 over the last 10 games winning as underdogs of +187, +195, +120, and +125. Edward Cabrera (1.50 ERA) allowed one run against the Giants in his lone start fanning 10 and walking just one. This is his fourth year and in every season he's had more strikeouts than innings pitched (231 Ks in 203+ innings). Chicago's 34-year-old Kyle Hendricks (12.71 ERA) has been terrible giving up 24 runs and 38 base runners in just 17 innings. The Cubs are 5-11 in his last 11 starts and the Chicago bullpen is 15th in ERA (4.01) and 20th in WHIP. Play Miami. 

Last place Miami is getting outscored by 40 runs, the third-worst differential in the major leagues. They've lost all four times Jesus Luzardo (7.65 ERA) has stepped on the mound, off of a 9-7 loss to Atlanta allowing five runs in five innings. He also lost 7-0 in his only road game. The offense is 24th in runs scored, 28th in on-base percentage, 29th in slugging, and 17th in steals. The pitching staff is 27th in ERA (5.03), including 28th in the pen (5.62 ERA). The Marlins are 31-86 on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by one or more runs per game. Meanwhile, Chicago is sixth in runs scored, seventh in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging, on a 7-4 run after crushing Miami yesterday, 8-3. Javier Assad (2.16 ERA) takes the mound holding batters to a .193 average. The Cubs are 26-14 at home after having won three of their last four and hold all the cards. Play the Chicago Cubs as a Max Play.

Chicago is in a bad scheduling situation having played nine road games in a row on a Western swing in a 10-day span before finally coming home for tonight's game. Miami will start A.J. Puk, who will likely go four or five innings. Jameson Taillon will make his first appearance for the Cubs this season after finishing 8-10 with a 4.84 ERA in 2023. Taillon was activated from the injured list after recovering from a back injury. Chicago has lost four straight versus NL East opponents and although the Marlins lost two of three at San Francisco, their pitching has improved as they allowed a total of 10 runs in the series. Taillon was only 4-6 with a 4.62 at home last year. Take the Marlins.