Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Picks

I had Chicago on the moneyline in this same series two nights ago and got burned when Cincinnati won outright, 6-4, in a game that looked a lot like tonight's setup on paper. Nothing about this rubber match changes that read. The Cubs still haven't named a starter for the getaway finale after already working Clay Holmes and Matthew Boyd through the first two games, which means Chicago is patching this together with whatever's left in the bullpen behind an unannounced arm. Cincinnati's own rotation isn't good, Rhett Lowder carries a rough season line, but he settled in his last time out, five innings and three earned against a much better Dodgers lineup than what Chicago is bringing. Chicago is fighting for playoff position and will play hard, I'm not selling this as a letdown spot, but a team scrambling for length from an unnamed arm, in a series it's already split, is live to drop the finale to a Reds team that beat it once already this week. At plus money against that much uncertainty on the mound, I want the home dog here. Side with Cincinnati on the moneyline this afternoon.

Chicago still holds a Wild Card spot at 85-68, even after stumbling to 4-6 over its last ten games. Cincinnati has been worse, managing just two wins in its own last ten, and the Reds carry a one-game skid into this one. Clay Holmes gets the ball for the Cubs and has looked far better than his ugly start against Miami two weeks ago suggests, working 5.2 solid innings with two earned runs in his last outing. Chase Burns takes the mound for Cincinnati carrying a sharp 2.80 ERA, but the Reds have kept him on a short leash his last two turns, holding him to three innings each time, and that workload keeps falling on a pitching staff that's scuffled to a 4.87 ERA as a group this season. Cincinnati's offense hasn't offered much cover either. The informed money agrees, loading up on Chicago on both the moneyline and the run line. Chicago is the play on the moneyline tonight.

I had Cincinnati on the run line here last night and it turned into one of the uglier results of the week, a 17-5 laugher that made the extra run and a half irrelevant. I'm not hiding from that. But my model treats a favorite that just hung 17 runs on a division rival as a fade the next time out, not a team to keep chasing, and that's exactly the spot the Cubs are standing in tonight. Chase Burns takes the mound for the Reds off a rough final line his last time out, but zoom out and he's been one of the better arms in the National League all season, sitting near the top of the league in ERA with swing-and-miss stuff that travels. Shota Imanaga goes for Chicago and got pulled after just two innings his last time out, hardly the form of a pitcher who should be laying a heavy price behind an offense coming off a blowout that history says tends to cool the next night. I'm buying back in against the same number that beat me last night, and I like this letdown spot far more than I liked last night's. Cincinnati and the extra run and a half is the strongest number on my board tonight.

I had the Reds getting the extra run against the Giants earlier this week, and that ticket cashed without a scare. Cincinnati brings a similar shape into Wrigley this afternoon: a losing club by record, but one that plays a lot closer than 63-71 suggests once the run line is in play. Andrew Abbott takes the ball for the Reds carrying a 4.15 ERA. He's not dominant, but he's worked past the fifth inning in three of his last five starts, holding Cincinnati in the game each time. Kevin Gausman gets the ball for Chicago, and this has been a rough summer for him too: a 4.58 ERA and a 6-11 record, with two of his last three starts failing to make it through five innings. The Cubs have also dropped two straight and haven't looked like the offense that carried them through the first half of the year. Getting that extra cushion with a pitcher this shaky on the mound for the favorite is the kind of number I want on a two-unit play. Cincinnati is the right side on the runline this afternoon.