Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Last place Cincinnati has been shutout in the first two of this series, losing 1-0 and 3-0. The offense has dipped to 15th in runs scored, 22nd in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging. Hunter Greene has struggled against the Cubs this season with a 6.39 ERA in 12+ innings, including a 7-5 loss (five runs in six innings) in his only start at Wrigley Field. The bullpen is 19th in ERA and 20th in WHIP. The Reds have lost five in a row away from home and six in a row against winning teams. Chicago's offense is 12th in runs scored, 10th in on-base percentage, and eighth in steals. The bullpen is 12th in ERA and the Cubs have won five of their last six against losing squads. Play Chicago. 

Chicago won 1-0 on Friday and look for a similar result in today's game as the forecast calls for the wind to be blowing in from center field at 24 mph. Cincinnati already has fired its manager and is waiting for the season to end and the Reds are one game from being in last place in the NL Central. The Reds had only four hits on Friday and they have scored just three runs their past four games while being shut out twice. The Cubs have won Kyle Hendricks' past five starts while pitching with six days of rest and they have won five of six overall at home against right-handed starters. The Reds have lost five straight as underdogs and they have gone UNDER their past five games overall. Chicago is 4-0-1 UNDER its past five versus right-handed starters. Take the Cubs and the UNDER.

Cincinnati is on a 14-8 run UNDER the total. The Reds wrap up the season with a five-game road trip, scoring just three runs in the last three games. The offense has dipped to 15th in runs scored and 20th in on-base percentage. Chicago's pitching is 11th in the majors in ERA (3.84), including 12th in the bullpen. Jameson Taillon (3.41 ERA) has had a fine season and sports a 2.37 ERA at Wrigley Field in 2024. He comes off a 3-1 win over Washington at home throwing six shutout innings on two hits. Take Cincinnati/Chicago UNDER the total as my Game of the Month. 

Cincinnati has won five of six meetings after its 7-1 victory over the Cubs on Monday when the Reds got homers from TJ Friedl, Will Benson and Jeimer Candelario. The Reds have won seven of eight after allowing two or fewer runs their previous game and seven of eight against teams that scored two or fewer. Chicago is 24-32 on the road and it has lost seven of its past eight road games versus teams with losing home records. The Cubs have lost Justin Steele's past four starts as road favorites of -110 to -150. Steele has faced Cincinnati twice this year and allowed eight runs (two earned) on 12 hits in 12 innings. Take the Reds.

Chicago's offense has erupted for 16 runs in the last two games, wins at Kansas City of 9-4 and 7-3. They're on a 12-8 run winning nine as underdogs of +111, +155, +155, +116, +170, +111, +100, +115, and +153. Starter Jameson Taillon is great at home (2.68 ERA) with his road ERA at 3.28. He's allowed 9 runs in his last three road games (17+ innings) and the bullpen is 19th in WHIP. The Cubs are on an 8-5-1 run OVER the total on the road. Cincinnati's offense is No.1 in the majors in steals while the defense is just 27th in fielding percentage. Starter Carson Spiers has a 3.94 ERA at home where batters are hitting .285 off him. The Reds are on an 8-5-1 run OVER the total at home. They're also on a 3-6 run losing four times as a favorite and are coming home from a six-game road trip after losing at Tampa Bay yesterday, 2-1, as chalk. Back the visitors in a high-scoring affair. Take Chicago + OVER the total.