Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants Betting Picks

I was on Boston to win outright two days ago in this series, and it cashed easily, the start of a stretch where the Red Sox have taken both games from San Francisco heading into the finale this afternoon. The Giants have lost three straight and sit 2-8 over their last ten games, the profile of a lineup that has stopped generating much offense down the stretch of a lost season. Matt Wilkinson takes the ball for San Francisco just a few turns into his big-league career, still hunting for his first earned run allowed at this level. Boston counters with Jake Bennett, a steady 3.46 ERA arm all year who has already beaten this Giants club once in this series. Two clubs playing out very different stretches, but the throughline holds: a young arm still finding his footing against one of the league's coldest lineups, opposite a veteran who has done nothing but get outs against this same opponent. That combination points to a lower-scoring finish than the total suggests. The UNDER is the play in Boston this afternoon.

I had the UNDER when Arizona visited Fenway on Monday, and it did not come close, Boston piling up runs in an 11-1 laugher that ran right past the number. That kind of offense is exactly what I want behind Sonny Gray tonight. Gray has been terrific all year, a 2.65 ERA and nearly eight strikeouts per nine innings, and he just threw seven scoreless against Pittsburgh his last time out. Logan Webb takes the ball for a Giants club that has lost 74 games already, and while Webb himself has been solid at 3.50 with 110 strikeouts, San Francisco is not scoring behind him, averaging barely four runs a game as a team. Boston carries a 3.52 team ERA of its own and has allowed under four runs a game all season, with the deeper lineup and the better arm on the mound tonight against a last-place club playing out the string. Back Boston on the moneyline tonight.

Boston comes off a 3-2 loss to the Giants, part of a 19-11 run UNDER the total. Starter Lucas Giolito has a 1.93 ERA on the road, where he's holding the home teams to a .181 batting average. San Francisco's offense is 17th in runs scored, 21st in on-base percentage, 25th in slugging, and 23rd in steals. Robbie Ray is holding batters to a .201 average on the season and sports a 2.29 ERA at home. He has 97 Ks in 87+ innings. The relief staff is No. 1 in the majors in ERA (2.64), with the Giants on a 22-8-2 run UNDER the total. Take Boston/San Francisco UNDER the total.