Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Picks

I had the Yankees in Game 1 last night, and they beat Boston 9-0 without Aaron Judge, who is off the Wild Card roster with a strained calf. Cam Schlittler struck out 10 over 6.1 scoreless innings, and Ben Rice hit two home runs, the second a grand slam in the eighth, to finish with six RBI. The Red Sox have now scored four runs or fewer in 14 straight games, and tonight they face Max Fried, who carries a 2.80 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He threw eight scoreless innings in Boston in April and allowed three hits. Sonny Gray is Boston's best argument. He went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA, and the Yankees managed one hit off him in June. Boston's trouble starts when he leaves. New York scored seven of its nine runs in the seventh and eighth innings last night against a bullpen that used five relievers, and Wyatt Olds has now pitched twice in three days. Those late innings drive both of tonight's bets. The Yankees hit 223 home runs, second in the majors, and they can carry most of this total by themselves while the runs they score after Gray exits decide the game. Take the Yankees on the moneyline and take the OVER tonight.

I faded Boston with Cleveland last week and watched the Red Sox get shut out 1-0. That wasn’t an isolated night. Boston has scored four runs or fewer in 13 straight games and posted a .651 OPS in September, and tonight it draws the pitcher it can least afford. Cam Schlittler finished with a 1.95 ERA, second-best in baseball, and a 0.92 WHIP. Over his last five starts, he allowed four earned runs in 30 innings. He has already blanked this lineup once, allowing two hits over 5.2 innings in a 1-0 Yankees win on August 28. Payton Tolle is no soft spot at 3.03, but the bigger gap is between the lineups. New York’s 223 home runs rank second in the majors, and its OPS rises against lefties (.733) and falls against righties (.714). Boston ranks 23rd in runs scored, and with Judge out of the lineup, we're getting value on the home side. Take the Yankees.

Last night got away from me in this series. New York broke a tight game open late and the total sailed past this same number with room to spare, one night after Boston had blanked the Yankees in the other end of this set. That's what this series has looked like all weekend, capable of tipping either direction depending on which bullpen holds. Ranger Suarez takes the ball for Boston off three straight outings of at least five innings and an ERA sitting in the mid-3s, the picture of a starter working deep and keeping traffic off the bases. Will Warren draws the return look for New York, and while his command has wavered his last time out, the long ball is the one real blemish on a Yankees staff that owns one of the better team ERAs in the league this year. Both of these clubs win with pitching and defense before they win with the bat, and a competent five or six innings from either arm caps this one well shy of last night's fireworks. I'm not chasing that total. Take the UNDER this afternoon.

Boston’s bats have gone quiet at the worst time, shut out by New York to open this series last night and blanked two days before that in Miami. The Red Sox have scored zero runs in two of their last three games and turn around for tonight’s nightcap still searching for their first run of the series. New York isn’t walking in scorching either, needing just one run to win last night’s tight opener. Boston carries a 3.46 ERA on the season and New York sits a shade better at 3.22, both playable numbers if either bat wakes up, but neither has offered much evidence of that the last two nights. Neither club has named a starter for the nightcap, so this shapes up as two lineups in a rut against pitching staffs that have held their own all year. That is the shape of a total that catches my eye: a short home favorite with both offenses coming off quiet outputs. I had Boston on the moneyline last week in Miami and cashed a 4-1 win, but tonight is a different look: two cold bats and a number that should hold. Take the UNDER tonight in the second game of the doubleheader.

Friday night's series opener at Yankee Stadium ended 1-0, with Cam Schlittler working into the sixth and both bullpens shutting the door the rest of the way. That's the tone this four-game set has taken, and Saturday's day-night doubleheader opener looks built the same way. Carlos Rodon takes the mound for New York with a 3.15 ERA, working efficiently since returning to the rotation and missing enough bats to keep his innings short and clean. Jake Bennett draws the ball for Boston with a 3.40 ERA of his own, holding steady against a lineup that showed little life a night earlier. New York's pitching staff has been one of the better units in baseball this season, holding opponents to 3.75 runs per nine, second-best in the league, and that number carried right through Friday's low-scoring opener. Both bullpens should be fresh too, with this being Game 1 of the day's twin bill and no fatigue dragging either side into extra runs. My model likes two capable left-handers, a park that produced a single run in the first meeting of this series, and pens with plenty left in the tank. We're on the UNDER this afternoon for the first game of the double-header, and it's the kind of number our ledger is built on.