Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Picks

Last night got away from me in this series. New York broke a tight game open late and the total sailed past this same number with room to spare, one night after Boston had blanked the Yankees in the other end of this set. That's what this series has looked like all weekend, capable of tipping either direction depending on which bullpen holds. Ranger Suarez takes the ball for Boston off three straight outings of at least five innings and an ERA sitting in the mid-3s, the picture of a starter working deep and keeping traffic off the bases. Will Warren draws the return look for New York, and while his command has wavered his last time out, the long ball is the one real blemish on a Yankees staff that owns one of the better team ERAs in the league this year. Both of these clubs win with pitching and defense before they win with the bat, and a competent five or six innings from either arm caps this one well shy of last night's fireworks. I'm not chasing that total. Take the UNDER this afternoon.

Boston’s bats have gone quiet at the worst time, shut out by New York to open this series last night and blanked two days before that in Miami. The Red Sox have scored zero runs in two of their last three games and turn around for tonight’s nightcap still searching for their first run of the series. New York isn’t walking in scorching either, needing just one run to win last night’s tight opener. Boston carries a 3.46 ERA on the season and New York sits a shade better at 3.22, both playable numbers if either bat wakes up, but neither has offered much evidence of that the last two nights. Neither club has named a starter for the nightcap, so this shapes up as two lineups in a rut against pitching staffs that have held their own all year. That is the shape of a total that catches my eye: a short home favorite with both offenses coming off quiet outputs. I had Boston on the moneyline last week in Miami and cashed a 4-1 win, but tonight is a different look: two cold bats and a number that should hold. Take the UNDER tonight in the second game of the doubleheader.

Friday night's series opener at Yankee Stadium ended 1-0, with Cam Schlittler working into the sixth and both bullpens shutting the door the rest of the way. That's the tone this four-game set has taken, and Saturday's day-night doubleheader opener looks built the same way. Carlos Rodon takes the mound for New York with a 3.15 ERA, working efficiently since returning to the rotation and missing enough bats to keep his innings short and clean. Jake Bennett draws the ball for Boston with a 3.40 ERA of his own, holding steady against a lineup that showed little life a night earlier. New York's pitching staff has been one of the better units in baseball this season, holding opponents to 3.75 runs per nine, second-best in the league, and that number carried right through Friday's low-scoring opener. Both bullpens should be fresh too, with this being Game 1 of the day's twin bill and no fatigue dragging either side into extra runs. My model likes two capable left-handers, a park that produced a single run in the first meeting of this series, and pens with plenty left in the tank. We're on the UNDER this afternoon for the first game of the double-header, and it's the kind of number our ledger is built on.