Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Betting Picks

The Rangers dropped their season opener but have rallied back, winning four straight. Texas pitching has allowed fewer than 4.00 runs per game. Baltimore has lost the first two games in this series, yielding 13 runs, and they'll hand the ball to Trevor Rogers today, who pitched seven shutout innings in his season debut, allowing just three hits (5K, 4 BB). Since the start of last season, the Rangers are 22-11 UNDER when facing the AL East. They have also been 42-25 to the UNDER when the total is in this range (8 to 8.5). Baltimore is 30-7 UNDER vs. good power teams averaging 1.25+ HR since the start of last season, and we're getting good value on this number. Make the play on the UNDER. 

Texas plays its fifth straight on the road. Starter Jacob deGrom didn't get much spring training work and is dealing with minor neck stiffness. Baltimore has split its first four and plays its fifth consecutive contest at Camden Yards. Zach Eflin had an impressive spring, allowing no runs over 7+ innings in two starts with a 94 MPH fastball. He battled injuries last season but is healthy and poised to return to his form from 2023-24, when he posted ERAs of 2.60 and 3.59. The O's have been a sneaky-profitable home dog over the past four years (above .500, +14.3% ROI), and I like this setup. Play Baltimore.  

Texas took two out of three at Philadelphia, winning as underdogs of +125 and +135. Newcomer Brandon Nimmo (.333) has added punch to the top of the order, while Corey Seager (.364) is off to a great start. Jack Leiter comes off a season with a 3.86 ERA, holding batters to a .222 average. Baltimore used six relievers yesterday to survive an 8-6 win over the Twins. 37-year-old Chris Bassitt had a 5.40 ERA versus the Rangers last year. The offense is 19th in runs scored, while the bullpen ranks 16th after being 27th (4.57 ERA) last year. Play Texas. 

Texas will try again to start a winning streak and get back to .500 after trouncing the Orioles 10-2 on Tuesday night. Adolis Garcia drove in four runs as the Rangers banged out 14 hits, and they have averaged six runs their past seven games after struggling early in the season offensively. Baltimore is firmly in last place in the AL East and the Orioles are 18-26 on the road. They have given up 36 runs in five games. Tomoyuki Sugano allowed seven runs on nine hits in five innings his last start although the Orioles bailed him out with a 22-8 win over Tampa Bay. Don't expect anything like that to happen against Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 1.87 ERA in 13 games this season. Texas is 5-0 his past five home starts against teams with losing records. Take the Rangers.