Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals

The Baltimore Orioles endured some rough seasons, but the Birds are back as an AL Contender. Baltimore has entered muddy waters for the first time all season. How will this young team snap out of it? Baltimore has a losing record over their last seven games, and there is a lot of pressure on the pitching staff. The Baltimore offense has bogged down as they have scored four or fewwer runs in 12 of their past 18 games. The Cardinals are playing their best baseball of the season over their last eight games. Their 6-2 record is their best eight game stretch of the year. I like the line value against a Baltimore team that is having some offensive issues, backing a Cardinal team that is playing their best baseball of the season. Make the play on St. Louis.

Despite Sunday's loss St. Louis is experiencing a resurgence winning five of seven after a slow start this season. Dean Kremer has made one start in his career against the Cardinals and it didn't go well for him as he finished with a 10.39 ERA and a 2.54 WHIP. Kremer also had a bad outing his last start on May 12 when he allowed six runs (three earned) in 5 2/3 innings against Arizona. Sonny Gray is 5-2 with a 1.06 WHIP for the Cardinals, who have won three of his past four starts while giving him good run support. Gray has a 0.98 ERA in three home appearances this year with a .200 opponent batting average. The St. Louis bullpen is tied for #2 in the National League with 14 saves. Take the Cardinals.

St. Louis has won six of nine winning four times as an underdog after topping the Orioles yesterday, 5-2, as a +176 dog. The offense is Top 10 in on-base percentage and slugging, scoring 50 runs in the last six games while hitting double-digits four times. The Cardinals are 43-23 in September games, plus 10-4 versus the AL East. Baltimore has dropped two of three, losing as chalk of -115 and -180. 35-year-old Kyle Gibson (5.12 ERA) is a big favorite but has a 5.69 ERA at home this season where batters are hitting .287 off him. With the Orioles 39-57 at home against NL teams averaging 4.5+ runs, back the visitors. Play St. Louis. 

John Means will get his first start for Baltimore since April 13, 2022 as he has been rehabbing following Tommy John surgery. His last full season was 2021 when he was 6-9 with a 3.62 ERA in 146 2/3 innings pitched. St. Louis has won five of eight and has incentive to finish out of last place in the NL Central. Adam Wainwright is still in pursuit of his 200th win and he'll attempt to slow down an Orioles offense that scored 11 runs last night, marking the fourth time they've hit double-digits in their past five games. The Cardinals are 42-23 their past 65 September games, and Means likely will go only five innings. There is solid value here with the road dog. Play the Cardinals.