Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Picks

Emmet Sheehan has struggled to put together consistent outings this season — 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA, multiple runs allowed in each of his last six starts — and Baltimore's 3-2 win on Saturday looks, at first glance, like a reason to doubt the Dodgers today. It isn't. Trevor Rogers threw seven near-perfect innings in that game; the Orioles didn't beat the Dodgers' lineup, they got the outlier start their rotation has produced maybe once this year. That kind of performance doesn't carry over to a series finale. The more important number is what Los Angeles does as an offense. The Dodgers average better than five runs per game, second-best in the National League, and no version of Sheehan struggling early changes the math when Andy Pages and the rest of that lineup is standing in. The Dodgers are 7-6 in games Sheehan starts — the offense consistently bails him out. Baltimore's counterpoint is Brandon Young, who has been solid all year, 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA and at least six innings in each of his last five starts, but Young is now walking into the most dangerous offensive environment he's faced. The Orioles arrive in this finale without Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Jordan Westburg — three of their core contributors — against the best pitching staff in the National League by team ERA. The Dodgers are the right side today.

Roki Sasaki is one of the most volatile starters in the National League. After posting a 6.35 ERA through his first five outings, the 24-year-old right-hander strung together four brilliant starts — a 2.55 ERA, including a seven-inning, ten-strikeout shutout against the Angels — before the White Sox lit him up for seven runs in 4.1 innings just last week. He carries a 4.76 ERA for the season and has yet to prove he can sustain the flashes of brilliance over a full turn of the rotation. Baltimore is 34-40, but this lineup has real weapons: Gunnar Henderson can change a game in one swing, Pete Alonso gives the middle of the order a genuine threat, and Adley Rutschman controls the game from behind the plate. Trey Gibson draws the start on the mound for the Orioles, and asking a 5.91 ERA arm to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers is a tall order — the case for Baltimore rests entirely on Sasaki's ceiling being unpredictable and the number being significantly mispriced. At close to 2-to-1 returns, the Orioles don't need to win this game most nights — just more often than the market implies. Take Baltimore at these odds.

Los Angeles is 3,000 miles from home and has a losing road record. They've lost all five on this miserable road trip - all as a favorite. They're also on a 10-16 slide. Clayton Kershaw got hit hard in his lone start on this trek, a 9-7 loss at Pittsburgh as a -175 favorite. Baltimore is on a 6-1 run and plays its third straight at home. The Orioles are 16-9 in the last 25 starts made by Tomoyuki Sugano, so back the home dog. Play Baltimore.