Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers were a surprise World Series winner last season and finished with a post-season record of 13-4. The Rangers opened the 2024 season with high hopes of a repeat, but are just 11-9 to start 2024. Despite the record things have not changed much. The Rangers pitching allowed 4.37 runs per game a year ago, and are allowing 4.35 runs per game this season, while the offense is still genetaing better than five runs a game. I think the 11-9 record is somewhat misleading. Atlanta is 12-5, but has lost a top starter for the season in Spencer Strider, and Ozzie Albies is currently out as well. Chris Sale has been injured for the better part of the last thre seasons, and so far the Braves are 1-2 in his three appearances. I think there is value on the Rangers here, as the numbers aren't much different than last year. Make the play on Texas.

Atlanta had won all of Spencer Strider's seven starts in 2023 until Friday when the Braves lost 3-0 to Toronto, but it wasn't his fault as he allowed only one earned run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings to lower his ERA to 2.51 with a 0.92 WHIP. Strider has done his best work on the road where he is 3-1 with a 1.90 ERA and .171 opponent batting average and the Braves are 16-7 on the road compared to 10-9 at home. Also, Atlanta's bullpen owns a 1.23 WHIP with 10 saves. The Braves will need a good outing from Strider as they're up against Nathan Eovaldi, who has been a hot pitcher recently as he hasn't given up a run his past three starts. However, he has a 4.26 at home with a .260 opponent batting average as opposed to 1.83 and .213 on the road. Atlanta is 24-8 its past 32 games against starters with WHIPs of less than 1.15. Take the Braves as a Max Play. 

Atlanta had a four-game losing streak before routing the Rangers 12-0 on Monday night and the Braves still have a six-game lead in the NL East and have the best road record in the majors at 16-6. The Braves exploded for 12 hits, including five two-run homers and will need to carry that momentum into tonight's matchup against Dane Dunning, who has pitched well for Texas in place of Jacob deGrom. The Rangers' bullpen allowed six runs in four innings and it has a 4.24 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season with only eight saves. The Braves are an amazing 45-13 in the second game of a series dating to last season and 59-26 overall after scoring at least five runs their previous game. The Rangers have lost 21 of 27 interleague games versus lefty starters and southpaw Jared Shuster gets the start for Atlanta tonight. Take the Braves.