Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Betting Picks

Atlanta has reeled off six straight, and Bryce Elder starts today. Over his last five starts, he has been touched for multiple runs three times, including a four-inning, five-run meltdown against San Francisco in late June, and his 3.84 ERA sits ahead of Eury Pérez's mark by less than half a run even with Pérez sitting on two fewer wins. That win total says nothing about how Pérez has actually pitched: across his last three outings, he has allowed four earned runs total, working at least six innings every time out. Atlanta's offense carried the load again in that opener, and a Miami lineup hitting .250 as a team has enough contact in it to turn one of Elder's shaky middle innings into a problem tonight. The gap between these two arms is thinner than the gap in the price. Back the Marlins.

We were on Miami's price Thursday when New York scored the winning run late, but the Marlins have won three straight since, part of a stretch that's turned a franchise-record 12-game skid into six wins in seven games. Atlanta enters on its own five-game streak and sits comfortably atop the NL East, and Grant Holmes takes a 3.88 ERA into a matchup he's handled reasonably well in his career against Miami. Ryan Gusto doesn't have Holmes' polish, working to a 4.50 ERA in a season split between the rotation and bullpen, so this isn't a case for Miami being the better team tonight. It's a case for the price: the Marlins are finding form at the right time, sitting a game and a half out of a wild-card spot, and a club playing with that kind of momentum is live at plus money against anybody, including a team as good as Atlanta. Back the Marlins.

Atlanta plays its third consecutive road contest. Chris Sale is dominant at home (0.60 ERA) but has a 3.60 ERA on the road. The Braves have split his four road starts, including a 6-2 loss at the Angels as a -175 favorite. Miami has scored 16 runs in two games against Atlanta, improving to 11th in the majors in runs scored and on-base percentage, plus No. 1 in steals. Janson Junk has a 3.24 ERA at home. They've won three of his last five starts, including a 2-1 win at the Dodgers as a +240 dog. Play Miami.