Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Betting Picks

Atlanta has won six in a row, the last one a tight 2-1 grind against this same Colorado club that came down to the final outs. I like the return matchup even more today. Tyler Mahle's won-loss record doesn't reflect the pitcher he's been lately: six innings and one run against the Mets, six-plus and two against Minnesota, five and one against Milwaukee, three straight outings of quality work while a shaky bullpen and a quiet offense have buried his record. Colorado counters with Mason Adams, a rookie making just his second big-league start after a solid debut, and rookies on the road against a lineup like Atlanta's are exactly the kind of unknown I want to bet against rather than with. The bigger factor is where this game is being played. Away from altitude, Colorado's offense loses the one thing that makes it dangerous, and this club is a well below-.500 team on the road with a three-game losing streak to show for it. Atlanta gets a rested bullpen behind a starter who's quietly dealing and an opponent that's a different, lesser team once it leaves Coors Field behind. Lay the price and take the Braves this afternoon for my MLB Game of the Month.

I had Atlanta last night against this same Colorado club, and the Braves delivered again, extending their winning streak to four games as they try to pull away in the NL East. Martín Pérez gets the ball for Atlanta with a 3.27 ERA on the season, and he draws a Rockies lineup that loses its biggest offensive weapon the moment it leaves Coors Field. Colorado is 52-82, and Ryan Feltner has been part of why: a 5.86 ERA that has only gotten worse lately, with just one win in his last five starts and an ERA over 7.00 in three of them. The Rockies away from home give up the thin-air boost that inflates their offense, and that gap has shown up in this series already. Atlanta is rolling right now, and I don't see a reason for that to change against a struggling road pitcher and a team with nothing left to play for. I'm on Atlanta this afternoon.

I was on the wrong side of Atlanta's push three days ago, backing the Dodgers' moneyline into a 4-3 loss that kicked off a sweep, with the Braves following it up with one-run wins in each of the next two games to finish off Los Angeles. That's a four-game winning streak now for a team that was already 79-55 and comfortably ahead of a fading Colorado club that has lost seven straight games, two of them by ten runs or more. Grant Holmes takes the ball for Atlanta off a solid season, an 8-5 record with a 3.64 ERA, against a Rockies team that has forgotten how to compete on the road. Tomoyuki Sugano's own numbers, a 4.96 ERA despite a 12-7 record, tell the story of a pitcher who has been bailed out by run support that Colorado's offense has stopped providing during this collapse. I'm flipping sides after getting burned by this exact team, and the price still has value against a Rockies club playing out the string on the road. I'm on Atlanta's moneyline tonight.

Some teams have trouble playing at Coors Field. Not Atlanta. The Braves have won 13 of the past 16 times when playing at Coors. They are 22-6 against the Rockies since the start of the 2022 season. The Braves just smashed the Rockies, 9-1, on Saturday. That was Atlanta's 14th win in its last 17 games. The Braves have an MLB-best record of 24-10. Spencer Strider is going to make his much anticipated season debut today. So Atlanta shouldn't lack focus and incentive. Strider has been bothered by injuries the past two seasons, but may have been the best pitcher in baseball in 2023 when he went 20-5 with a 1.09 ratio and led the majors by a wide margin with 281 strikeouts in 186.2 innings. Strider is 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, six walks and 34 strikeouts in 18 career innings against Colorado. He is backed by an Atlanta bullpen that has the third lowest ERA at 3.15. The Rockies are starting Kyle Freeland, who has a career 4.84 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 120 career appearances at Coors. The Rockies have the fifth highest bullpen era in the National League at 4.31. Atlanta has the best offense in baseball. Take the Braves.