Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Betting Picks

Arizona led this one 2-0 into the sixth last night before Colorado scratched across three unanswered runs and walked away with a game the Diamondbacks controlled for five innings. That's a rough one to swallow, but nothing about it changes the math for this afternoon. Arizona sits at 64-57, a legitimate playoff club, while Colorado is 47-73 with next-to-last in baseball in team ERA at 5.48. Ryan Feltner does nothing to change that profile: a 5.71 ERA and a habit of leaving pitches over the plate. Merrill Kelly takes the ball for the Diamondbacks instead, and his 4.88 ERA, modest as it looks on the surface, is still close to a full run better than what Colorado is sending out. Arizona is also live in a situation that favors home favorites against teams winning under 46 percent of their games, and Colorado's .392 mark checks that box. One bad sixth inning doesn't erase the gap between these two rosters or the edge on the mound this afternoon. Arizona wins on the runline this afternoon.

Arizona has been playing its best baseball of the second half, and Sunday's win over the Dodgers only reinforced it: seven wins in its last ten games against playoff-caliber competition. Tonight the Diamondbacks turn to a Colorado club that owns one of the worst records in baseball and is closing out a rough road trip, with Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound for the Rockies. Sugano's decent win total is misleading. His ERA sits above 4.50, and he's given up plenty of hard contact against lineups that actually pressure him, which Arizona's does. Mitch Bratt has been the opposite for the Diamondbacks since his midseason trade: one run allowed across his last two starts, a stretch that includes a strong turn against a tough San Diego lineup. We were on Arizona's price against the Dodgers two days ago, and it cashed, and this gap in form and record is even wider tonight against a Colorado team playing out the string on the road. Arizona is the play on the runline tonight.

The Rockies aren't as bad as last season, but they are a tough team to back. There is value to them, however, at this inflated price in a pitching matchup of Jose Quintana vs. Ryne Nelson. There was some optimism that Nelson could be a breakout pitcher this season. That optimism has largely has been quashed with his 5.19 ERA. Arizona is 2-5 during Nelson's past seven starts. Quintana has shown that there still is some life in his 37-year-old left arm. He has allowed 3 runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts this season. The Rockies have won four of Quintana's last five starts, including the past three. All of these victories have come in an underdog role. So backing Quintana has proven to be quite profitable since late April. Take the Rockies.