Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Picks

After blowing a six-run lead in a 9-7 loss to the Orioles last night, the Diamondbacks are anxious to tie up the series. They are a good value here with Merrill Kelly set to make his first start of the season. Kelly posted a 3.22 ERA with one home run and 2.7 walks per nine innings with Arizona last season. Kelly takes on an Orioles team that is missing three of their better bats in injured Tyler O'Neill, Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle. Despite their outburst last night, the Orioles rank 16th in runs and 20th in homers. Baltimore starter Trevor Rogers has looked good in his first two starts with a 1.89 ERA after a breakthrough season last year. But Rogers is a lefty, and the Diamondbacks are 4-0 versus southpaws this season, ranking in the top eight in batting average and slugging percentage against lefties. Take the Diamondbacks. 

It is somewhat surprising that Baltimore is this big of a favorite, given its multiple injuries and uncertain starting pitching. The Orioles had not yet named a starting pitcher as of early today, leading to the possibility that this could be a bullpen game despite it being so early in the season. Baltimore is 8-7, but that record could start to fall given that the Orioles are down catcher Adley Rutschman (injured list), outfielder Tyler O'Neill (injured list), and designated hitter Ryan Mountcastle (broken foot). The 9-7 Diamondbacks are playing well, winning four of their last five games. Their starter today, Ryne Nelson, is off his best outing of the season. Nelson held the Mets to one run and no walks in 5 2/3 innings in picking up his first victory of the year, 7-2, this past Wednesday. Corbin Carroll is back healthy, joining another outstanding offensive threat, Ketel Marte. Carroll is batting .327 with a .414 OBP, .653 slugging percentage, and 11 RBI's. Take the Diamondbacks.

Baltimore's bullpen is eighth in the majors in ERA (3.20). They won the opener of this series, 5-1, with three of their last five road contests going UNDER the total. Arizona's bullpen is 10th in ERA (3.38) and third in WHIP. Starter Merrill Kelly has ERAs at home in the last three seasons of 3.02, 2.59, and 4.19. In his lone home start in 2025, Kelly allowed one run in 5+ innings against the Cubs. The Diamondbacks are on a 4-3-1 run UNDER the total at home and this total is too high. Take Baltimore/Arizona UNDER the total.