Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Betting Picks

Atlanta has won three of four although it does come off a 2-1 loss to the Diamondbacks on Saturday when each team was held to four hits. There have been only five runs scored in the past two games of the series and Atlanta is 8-1 UNDER this season. Arizona has scored just five runs in four games. Martin Perez allowed no runs on two hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Athletics on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks are hitting .209 in 86 at-bats against Perez. Brandon Pfaadt had a rough outing against Detroit yielding five runs in six innings, but last season he was 9-3 with a 3.24 ERA at home while allowing only four homers in 97 1/3 innings. Take the UNDER.

Atlanta is 7-1 UNDER this season as the Braves continue to get great pitching, including Friday's 2-0 win over the Diamondbacks, who totaled two hits. The Braves have allowed just 1.75 runs per game in 2026, and Arizona has scored only three runs in three games. Bryce Elder threw six shutout innings on five hits in his first outing against the Athletics on Monday. Arizona batters have three extra-base hits and no homers in 44 at-bats against Elder. Michael Soroka allowed no runs on four hits in five innings against Detroit in his first start. Atlanta's bullpen has a 1.27 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. Take the UNDER.

The Atlanta Braves sat out the playoffs last year because injuries were a major issue. They have started the season much better, at 5-2 through 7 games. The Braves have been explosive early, with a +27 run differential. Only the Milwaukee Brewers have been better, with a +28 differential. Arizona is off to a 3-4 start despite a -17 run differential. I think there is value in this game because of the starts each has had, but those differentials are likely to regress to the mean. Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez threw 5 scoreless innings in his 2026 debut. Grant Holmes has eased up vs. losing teams; his team is 4-10 when he starts vs. a losing squad. Make the play on Arizona.

Arizona comes off a 2-1 win at Atlanta, part of a 5-2 run UNDER the total on the road. Brandon Pfaadt had a 3.90 ERA before a dreadful start against Washington the last time out. The Diamondbacks had been 7-3 in his previous 10 starts before he failed to get an out against the Nationals. Pfaadt beat Atlanta in April, allowing two earned runs in six innings. He faces an Atlanta offense that is 23rd in runs scored, 15th in on-base percentage, 20th in slugging, and 22nd in steals. Starter Grant Holmes has a 2.70 ERA at home. For the season, he has 64 Ks in 64+ innings while holding batters to a .205 average. The Braves' bullpen has a 3.64 ERA while the defense is No. 1 in fielding percentage. Atlanta is on a 24-8-2 run UNDER the total. Take Arizona/Atlanta UNDER the total.