Tommy Fleetwood vs. Xander Schauffele

When the U.S. Open last visited Shinnecock Hills in 2018, Tommy Fleetwood closed with a 63 that tied the lowest round in championship history, arriving one stroke short of catching Brooks Koepka. That connection to this venue is real, and his current form backs it up, with three top-12 finishes in his last four starts. Fleetwood's accuracy off the tee and his ability to generate quality approach angles from the fairway are exactly what this layout rewards. But the market has modestly overcorrected in his direction. Xander Schauffele at plus money offers something that should command a premium: 15 top-20s in 16 major starts since 2023, including two wins. His ball-striking is comprehensive, approach and driving alike, and Shinnecock's demands align with every strength in his game. Fleetwood's Shinnecock pedigree earns respect. Schauffele's broader major record earns more. Take Schauffele at the price.