Rory McIlroy vs. Xander Schauffele

Xander Schauffele might have the single best resume at East Lake of anyone in this field: four straight finishes inside the top five, including a runner-up finish three years ago. That history is real, and it's the strongest thing working against this pick. But Rory McIlroy has his own title at this course, a 21-under performance that still stands as one of the more dominant weeks anyone has had at East Lake, and right now he's playing at a different level than Schauffele is. McIlroy finished third at BMW last week and ranks inside the top three on TOUR in total strokes gained, with an off-the-tee game that's the best or second-best in the sport depending on the week. Schauffele's own trip to BMW ended in the mid-20s, a quiet week that doesn't match the level his East Lake history suggests he's capable of. Class and current form both point in the same direction here. McIlroy is the bet.