Patrick Cantlay vs. Jordan Spieth

Spieth keeps saying the game feels better than the results show, and that gap between feel and finish has now stretched across several seasons without a signature week to close it. Cantlay's own major record has had its rough patches, too, but the market still prefers him here, and the case for that lean is Spieth's extended stretch of saying the right things without the leaderboard to back it up. Birkdale's redesigned back nine rewards players who can control ball flight and avoid compounding one bad swing into a lost hole, and neither man arrives with obvious separation on that front this week. Given the choice between two names trying to rediscover form, I'll side with the shorter price. Cantlay is the right side in this matchup.