Matt Fitzpatrick vs. Xander Schauffele

Matt Fitzpatrick has had arguably the best sustained run of any golfer on earth through the first half of 2026. Three wins, two runner-up finishes, the FedEx Cup lead, and a 2022 U.S. Open title that confirms he understands what this championship demands. His iron play has been transformed, his low-ball flight is built for Shinnecock's wind, and the precision he has found this season is legitimate. All of that is the case for Fitzpatrick. The case for Xander Schauffele is shorter and harder to argue with: since the beginning of 2023, he has finished in the top 20 in 15 of his last 16 major starts. Two of those were wins at the 2024 PGA Championship and The Open Championship. His approach-play ranks second in this field heading into the week, and Shinnecock Hills funnels scoring opportunities almost entirely through the iron game. Fitzpatrick is in the best stretch of his career. Schauffele is the most consistent major championship performer in the field, and the slight premium in his favor reflects that edge without overstating it. Schauffele is the right side today.