Matt Fitzpatrick vs. Chris Gotterup

Chris Gotterup outplayed Matt Fitzpatrick by nine shots at BMW last week, finishing tied for fourth to Fitzpatrick's tie for 28th, and that's the number that has to be dealt with before anything else here. One hot week doesn't erase what separates these two across a full season, though. Fitzpatrick ranks second on TOUR in total strokes gained this year, with an approach game and a short game that both sit inside the top five, the kind of complete profile that travels well over four rounds regardless of how one week went. Gotterup's biggest gap is his approach play, which ranks outside the top 50, and that's precisely the skill East Lake asks for most with its small, demanding greens. Fitzpatrick has also already proven he can contend at this course, with finishes inside the top 15 in each of his last two trips, while Gotterup is working off a single, more modest showing there. Both of these players are rounding into form at the right time of year, but Fitzpatrick's floor over 72 holes is higher than the ceiling Gotterup flashed for one week, and that gap is the whole case. Play Fitzpatrick this afternoon.