Mackenzie Hughes vs. Steven Fisk

These two are about as evenly matched as it gets right now, having tied for 10th together at the Charles Schwab Challenge in their last common start, Hughes closing strong and Fisk doing the same with a five-under 65 on Sunday. Neither is doing much off the tee or with approach play this season, both sitting outside the top 100 in those categories, so this one comes down to who separates around the greens and on the bentgrass, exactly the terrain that decides the John Deere Classic. That's where Hughes has the edge. He ranks inside the top five in the field in strokes gained around the green over the last eight tournaments, part of a short game that's carried him to four top-10s already this year despite the same ball-striking limitations Fisk is dealing with. Fisk has his own moments of magic on the greens, a career-altering win at the Sanderson Farms last fall as proof, but his putting has been more inconsistent than Hughes's this season. When two players are this close tee to green, I'll take the guy with the sharper short-game numbers right now. Hughes is the play.