Ludvig Aberg vs. Collin Morikawa

Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Åberg have graded out as two of the best iron players on the planet all season, and this matchup is as close to a coin flip as this slate offers. What separates them is recency and course fit. Morikawa already has a win this year at Pebble Beach, a third-place finish at the Travelers two starts ago, and a track record at TPC Southwind of gaining strokes on approach year after year, exactly the skill this narrow, small-greened test demands most. Åberg has been every bit as good on paper, with top-10s in bunches and cuts made in all four majors, but he's played his way into a three-week break heading into Memphis, sitting out both the 3M Open and Wyndham to rest up for the Playoffs. That's a defensible plan for the long haul, but it means he's walking into a major-caliber test cold while Morikawa is playing right through his form. When the numbers are this even, I lean on the sharper approach player at the venue who hasn't gone three weeks cold. Morikawa is the play on the moneyline this week.