Justin Thomas vs. Jordan Spieth

Justin Thomas returned from back surgery this year and has flashed genuine form in the process — positive in approach, driving, and most other categories for three straight events, with a top-10 at the Players in just his second start back. His game is trending in the right direction. But the putter has been a problem all year, ranking mid-pack in strokes gained putting, and Muirfield Village's fast bentgrass greens don't hide that flaw — they expose it. Strokes lost on these surfaces compound quickly, particularly through the tough stretch run. Jordan Spieth is one of the best putters on bentgrass this generation has produced. He's been inconsistent in 2026, yes, and his tee-to-green game has had rough patches. But his ability to navigate a demanding course through course management and a hot flatstick gives him a real floor here that Thomas lacks when the putter isn't cooperating. Against a player whose biggest weakness is amplified by this specific venue, Spieth at plus odds is the right call. Take Spieth in this matchup.