Jake Knapp vs. Sepp Straka

Straka's résumé fits weeks like this. He's a multiple-time PGA Tour winner who's found his best golf on short, positional courses that demand accuracy over power, with recent finishes that back it up. His major-week track record backs him too, with finishes at The Open the last two years that show he handles this specific stage. Knapp has talent, evidenced by a career-best round that pushed him into the world's top 50 not long ago, but his results since have been far less consistent, and this is a step up in class against a proven closer. Birkdale's demand for precise iron play and creative scrambling around firm greens plays directly to Straka's strengths. Go with Straka.