J.J. Spaun vs. Kurt Kitayama

J.J. Spaun is the reigning US Open champion, a major winner at Oakmont — a course that demands the same Muirfield Village-style precision. His approach game ranks sixth on Tour this season, making him exactly the type of player this course rewards. He also has two wins in 2026 already. But the putter ranks 153rd on Tour, and the fast bentgrass greens at Jack's Place are exactly where that weakness shows up in full. He missed the cut here last year. Kurt Kitayama has put together one of the most consistent tee-to-green runs of any player on Tour this season — top 10 in ball-striking, top 10 in approach, and an active streak of 26 straight events gaining strokes on approach, which is an extraordinary number for any player. His short game has been rounding into form, and a stat analysis of this specific field slots him in the top tier for par-4 performance at Muirfield Village, which plays through several demanding long par-4s. Spaun's approach gives him a path, but Kitayama's more complete profile makes him the right side. Kitayama wins this matchup.