Collin Morikawa vs. Russell Henley

Collin Morikawa left Memphis with a tie for 52nd, a quiet week by his standards with almost nothing going right on the greens. Russell Henley did the opposite, cracking the top 30 at TPC Southwind and carrying real momentum into St. Louis. That's the read against Morikawa at first glance, but Bellerive is a different test than the tight, finesse-heavy layout at Southwind. The course plays to 7,448 yards with only two par-5s and a set of long, tree-lined par-4s that put a premium on precise, mid-to-long-iron approach play, exactly the part of Morikawa's game that has carried him to two majors. Henley is a steady, well-rounded player, but he doesn't bring the ball-striking class that separates the elite approach players on a course built to punish anything short of pure. A single quiet week at a course that rewards a completely different skill set doesn't erase that gap, and it's why Morikawa is priced at plus money even while laying two shots. Henley would need to out-execute a superior iron player on the exact terrain where that advantage shows up most. Take Morikawa to beat Henley by two shots or more.