Collin Morikawa vs. Patrick Cantlay

Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa were tied to the shot on Sunday in Memphis, both closing the FedEx St. Jude Championship in a six-way logjam for 10th at 7-under. That kind of dead heat should have made this one a coin flip, and the number reflects it, but Bellerive tips the scale for me. At 7,448 yards, this is one of the longest tracks the postseason will see, and Cantlay's carrying more ball speed off the tee than Morikawa this year, with a driving average that sits well ahead of his. He's also rested off a top-10 finish at the Rocket Classic, his fourth of the season, and his tee-to-green numbers have been the story all year, not the putter dragging him down. Morikawa's approach play is the best reason to respect him here, arguably the sharpest iron game on tour, but a longer, brawnier setup favors the player who can cover more of it in the air. I like Cantlay as the more complete fit for what Bellerive will demand this week. Take Cantlay in this head-to-head matchup.