Cameron Young vs. Ludvig Aberg

Ludvig Aberg was tracking well before Bellerive ever entered the conversation. He closed the FedEx St. Jude with a 67 to salvage a share of seventh after a shaky Saturday 74, and the number that stands out is the one at the top of the tee-to-green stats: he led the field off the tee that week. That matters this week because Bellerive is a Robert Trent Jones Sr. design that plays long and tight, with tree-lined fairways that punish anyone spraying it, and driving is going to separate this field more than it usually does. Cameron Young brings plenty of power too, but he's coming off a T39 in Memphis that included ten bogeys and three doubles, and the putter is the issue: he's been running cold on the greens for months now, averaging well below tour average in strokes gained putting over his last five starts. Aberg, by contrast, ranks sixth on tour in total strokes gained this season and has been trending the right direction, with top fives at Bay Hill, Sawgrass and the PGA Championship all coming at demanding, major-caliber setups just like this one. That profile fits Bellerive far better than Young's scrambling, error-prone recent form does, and my read makes Aberg the play at a short price. We're on Aberg in this matchup.