Billy Horschel vs. Eric Cole

Cole's summer has cooled off in a hurry. His ball-striking looked shaky at last week's Scottish Open, and while a runner-up finish at Colonial earlier this year still stands out on the résumé, recent weeks tell a different story than that one bright spot. Horschel is the quieter name in this pairing, but he's a proven, experienced ball-striker who doesn't need to be great this week, just competent, and getting plus money on the more battle-tested player against an opponent trending the wrong direction is a number worth taking. Value-based plays like this one aren't about proving the underdog is the better player in the long term. They're about the price not matching the moment. Back Horschel at plus money.