Alex Noren vs. Jason Day

Jason Day has shown flashes this year — a solid Masters result and moments when his short game and putting carry him through a demanding setup. Muirfield Village is not that course. The approach game is the price of admission here, and Day has been near the bottom of the Tour in iron play all season — consistently ranked between 128th and 144th depending on the snapshot, losing strokes from the fairway into the green at one of the worst rates in the field. That is a structural problem on a course that ranks among the five most difficult approach venues on Tour every year. Alex Noren is not a long hitter and never will be, but he is positive in his approach this season, is solid with the putter, and has shown he can handle a demanding major-caliber setup with a T30 at Augusta in the spring. Muirfield Village's generous fairways minimize the distance gap between them, and what remains is an iron-play contest where Noren holds a clear edge. Noren wins this matchup.