Alex Noren vs. Aaron Rai

Aaron Rai captured his first major this year at the PGA Championship, grinding out precision off the tee and into small targets at a brutally exacting Aronimink, and that profile is exactly what TPC Southwind rewards. Rai's tee-to-green numbers rank among the better marks in this field, and his other tour win came at the 2024 Wyndham Championship, a tight, tree-lined test that shares more DNA with Southwind than almost any other stop on tour. Alex Noren arrives playing well, with a top-10 finish at Wyndham last week, but that number was carried almost entirely by the putter. His approach game has been a net negative for the season, and Southwind's narrow fairways, small greens and water guarding eleven holes are built to expose exactly that gap. A hot week on the greens can paper over a ball-striking problem at a wide-open track. It won't here. Rai is the more complete player walking into the exam that suits him, and the number reflects it. Take Rai -1.5 on the spread this week.