USC Trojans vs Utah Utes Point Spread Picks

Utah played Florida plus three Top 20 teams this season and lost three of those four games. The one win was against this USC squad, a wild 43-42 victory at home. The Trojans still rolled up 556 yards, including 381 passing yards by QB Caleb Williams, who threw five touchdowns. Utah also lost 29-26 to Florida allowing 451 yards (283 rushing), lost 42-32 to UCLA giving up 502 yards (203 rushing), and lost 20-17 to Oregon. Utah is 30-15 UNDER the total away from home after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in the last game, plus 25-10 UNDER after getting 525+ total yards. Meanwhile, the loss to Utah is the only defeat for USC all season. USC's offense is fourth in the nation in total yards (506.8 per game), seventh in passing behind Williams (34 TDs, 3 INTs), and third on third down (.553) and in points (42.5 pg). USC is 2-1 straight up versus Top 20 teams and is 40-23 UNDER the total after a game where they committed no turnovers. The wagering value on the Pac-12 title game from Las Vegas is on the favorite to win a game with more defense than the public expects. Play USC on the moneyline + UNDER the total.

Utah may have exposed itself a couple of times this season. The Utes are a good team at 4-2 but all four of their wins have come as a favorite of -10 or more points. They have had two competitive games on the schedule vs Florida as a -2.5 point favorite, and at UCLA as a -3.5 point favorite, and lost both games straight up. USC looks like the cream of the Pac12 this season as the Trojans are off to a 6-0 start. The calling card for the Trojans has been turnovers. USC has forced its opponents into 14 turnovers or 2.7 a contest while the Trojans have not turned the ball over yet this season. Utah has limited poor opponent's offense, but UCLA went for over 500 yards against them and Florida over 450. I don't think they can hold down this USC offense either. Make the play on USC.

Utah went UNDER by 16.5 points in its 24-13 win over Washington State while USC barely went OVER by a half-point while winning at Colorado, 37-14, on Saturday. The Buffaloes were held to 80 yards on 39 carries, and the Trojans held QB Brendon Lewis to 10 of 17 passing and 162 yards with a TD and an interception. Utah has the #25 defense in yards allowed and is giving up 22.3 points per game, and USC allows 24.4 points per game. The last two meetings have stayed UNDER, including last year's 33-17 USC victory that went UNDER by nine points. The Utes are 9-4 UNDER their past 13 road games and 9-4 UNDER versus teams with winning records. The Trojans have stayed UNDER four of five after allowing fewer than 170 passing yards their previous game. Utah held the Cougars to 70 yards rushing on 37 carries and picked off Jarrett Guarantano three times. Take the UNDER for a Max Play.