UCLA Bruins vs USC Trojans Point Spread Picks

Toss out the won/lost records when it comes to the UCLA-USC rivalry. UCLA was right there with the Trojans last season before losing, 19-13. The 3-8 Bruins lack the skill-position talent that 8-3 USC has. But UCLA won't lack motivation. This is the Bruins' Super Bowl. UCLA is much better coached than it was when it opened 0-4 under DeShaun Foster, who was fired after that winless start. The Bruins then won three in a row behind interim coach Tim Skipper before losing their past four games. Note, though, that two of the last four defeats were to Ohio State and Indiana, who are the top two teams in the country. The Trojans may lack the motivation UCLA showed after a 42-27 road loss to Oregon. That deflating defeat proved that USC is not an elite Big Ten team. It also ended any chance of a college football playoff appearance for the Trojans. Take UCLA. 

This is a huge natural rivalry, and not many would have thought that UCLA would come into this game with the same number of losses as USC. USC watched their season come undone after a 6-0 start, and with Caleb Williams the reigning Heisman winner at QB. The fact is this team has totally imploded. The Trojans are 1-4 in their last five games and the lone win was by a single point against California. UCLA has held 8 different opponents to 17 or fewer points, and USC is playing no defense at all as the Trojans are allowing an unthinkable 43ppg in their last 7. USC has seen their season go from a playoff likely team to one that can't even win a game. Make the play on UCLA.

UCLA got caught looking ahead to this game last week and suffered a home loss to Arizona as a 20-point favorite. USC is 9-1 and that loss has left the Bruins at 8-2, but this is still a huge game vs inner-city rivals. Odds-makers are expecting a shootout here, with the total in the mid-70s. I think the rivalry is going to inspire somewhat conservative play and have the defense showing up. The last 21 totals posted that were greater than 74 have seen the under prevail 13-8. I think when you consider the magnitude of this game, and the rivalry status, the points aren't going to go the way the numbers look. UCLA after allowing 31 points or more in their last two games, and facing an opponent that has scored 37 or more in two straight games is 66-34 ATS to the UNDER. Make the play UNDER the total.